BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 09:45 AM

Those various factors uniting - aided by social media and engineered Outrage - is one reason why the hiatus between December 12th and 31st has me so worried. (Assuming May is still there by then. But she clings on like a June bug, and I don't believe a word she says. That's what you get when you cry Wolf too often.)

There is, as you say, true danger.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 09:39 AM

No way I'm forgetting, Jim!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 09:34 AM

"He won't be able to do much (if he even gets elected):"
It was stated by another Brexiteer last night that they intended to unite with other right wing European anti EU Groups to use the populism that gave us Brexit to undermine the Union - I'm afraid they can do a great deal of damage
You might have read in this morning's paper that ex Sinn Feinn TD is entering the election on an anti-immigration ticket - he has been disowned by his ex-party
Peter Casey leapt from nowhere to take a large slice of the Presidential vote, using anti-traveller bigotry
It looks as though the Israeli election has been won using populist Islamophobia
Populism foisted Trump on the world
It would be very foolish to forget who these people are and what they are doing
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 09:09 AM

”whatamess.”

Indeed it is, Don. More importantly, it’s a perfect example of what happens when a group of politicians get together and put party and personal wealth (their own, and that of their wealthiest supporters) before the good of the country and its people.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 09:07 AM

> Nice to see Farage making his way into The European Parliament with the intention of wrecking it

He won't be able to do much (if he even gets elected): In a pre-emptive move, as a condition of the extension, Europe are taking away Britain's seat at the commissioner's table; and he's not a head of state. Fortunately, all the drama-queen hissy fits and temper tantrums are SO obvious and juvenile that everybody can see them coming a mile off and prepare evasive action.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 08:48 AM

The EU will be glad to extend British anguish for a year. Its a warning to others. France however farts in your general direction and might suggest a Christmas deadline or nothing at all.
whatamess.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 08:46 AM

DtG, a whole lot in that article about immigration, but very little about the more important corollary, which is opportunities to emigrate. How did the nation which settled (ok, invaded and appropriated) much of North America and Australasia, become a bunch of stay-at-homes. Whereas the French, who historically did not settle even in their own colonies, have become much more open minded.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 08:23 AM

ice to see Farage making his way into The European Parliament with the intention of wrecking it
That appears to be the future tactic since they can't get their way by any other means
Jim Carroll

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 06:56 AM

The only thing that worries me ("only"... ha!!! ...among the 9,348,932 other things that worry me) is: If Europe gives us the 31st December extension instead of the March 2020 one, there will be another potential cliff-edge-chaos scenario (right before the usual Christmas madness), because from the 12th, May's leadership can again be challenged from within. And her own party deserted her in droves during the last Parliamentary vote.

That means there's a real danger that one of the extremists could be selected as the prime minister - with less than three weeks to the end of what Europe has assured us is the Final Final Final deferral. At least the March 2020 option allows breathing space to thrash something out.

I hate May, but I truly believe that most (not all) of the available alternatives are far, far worse. And the ones that don't terrify me (forget about disgust, passed that post long ago) show no signs of wanting to pursue the PM's chair. So if the new date has to be December, I think it should be the 11th and not the 31st.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 04:21 AM

Just a reminder and a good balanced article

Brexit: pros and cons of leaving the EU

Does not tell us anything we do not already know but helps us to focus on the discussion. It is all about whether you believe one outweighs the other. I believe the pros of remaining far outweigh the cons. Other believe differently.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 04:21 AM

i've always felt that it is the way that people and families are affected that should matter most. i don't really understand the finer details of trade deals, financial implications etc - far less the political squabbling involved in trying to extricate our country from whatever cul-de-sac into which we have so foolishly negotiated our selves.

from day 1 we could have said that EU workers are welcome here and worked hard to protect our rights to work abroad, but this has never been accepted by the political grotesques of the tory right. their money will protect them and they live and 'work' where they please. that a significant minority of our fellow citizens seem to support these buffoons is really sad. think about the opening ceremony of the london olympics and the picture that the UK showed to the world. that was only 7? years ago - the people who have dragged our country down and so far away from 'normal' or even sensible should be imprisoned - not queuing up for the top jobs in a barely functioning democracy.

sorry, i'm rambling now - when i should be off birdwatching on the solway coast and trying to forget about all this hideousness.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: David Carter (UK)
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 03:58 AM

Best option is a long delay, followed by a political realignment, and then we quietly forget this daft idea.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 03:52 AM

Not in my worst nightmares did I think this would end up days away from a no-deal exit leading to food and medicine shortages, chaos in the ports, fears about the Union, and a catastrophic fall in our standing in the world. I don’t blame the people who voted Leave. I blame the charlatans who peddled the falsehoods that this would be easy and cost-free. And what does it say about our politics that those who led the lying are among the favourites to become the next prime minister?
Betty Boothroyd ex Tiller Girl, ex legislative assistant for an American Congressman, and ex Speaker of the House of Commons, 89 years old

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 02:50 AM

Similar remarks apply to Donuel's interpretation that none of this really matters. I agree with him that in 6000 years this won't matter much - if we are still around as a species, it will be of the same sort of relevance to everyday life as the battles between Hengist and Horsa. But the path we take to get 6000 years hence does matter, so what happens in the next 6, 60 and 600 years does affect people's lives greatly so it makes sense to care passionately about it. Not to the exclusion of all else that affects their lives, though. It would be a serious error to concentrate on Brexit so much that you ignored everything else. In fact, I care very little about Brexit, really. What I care about is how Brexit impacts all these other things - the environmental controls, people's rights, the ability to limit multinationals, solving problems by negotiations, not physical or trade wars, and so on. Abstract theories of sovereignty or whatever do not really matter to me. How are actual people's lives affected does.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 10 Apr 19 - 02:25 AM

My experience is fairly similar to that. By way of illustration, around a week ago my wife and I met up with an old friend of hers recently who we hadn't seen or spoken to for perhaps 30 years. For several hours the topic of Brexit did not arise and then eventually she raised it in the most neutral terms she could and we responded in the same way. None of us wanted to get into a battle on what was a social occasion.

Then there is the point I think 'peteaberdeen' raised - "none of this really matters." While most of us care deeply about our country and fellow citizens, I think most of us also recognise that what we say on an obscure little website or over the pub table has no measurable effect on anything. When a million march, or 6 million sign a petition, it is enough to be acknowledged in Parliament, but the chances of it actually leading to a change is still quite small, but can certainly change the tone. I doubt if 'revoke' would be getting the consideration it is without the petition, for example.


But in ordinary day to day life? No, the topic is barely raised.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 10:10 PM

”I am totally confused and try to follow it. Just left england yesterday. Thought it would be discussed endlessly. Heard only a couple of people mention it. Rest radio silence.”

Mary, I think much depends on where you were, who you were with, and what you were doing.

The main TV news channels, Sky News and BBC news, are wall-to-wall Brexit right now, but if you weren’t watching TV news during your visit you might not be aware of that. And, of course, the papers are Brexit-Bonkers, full of all the latest doings of our politicians re Brexit.

But, as you might have gathered from this and the other Mudcat Brexit threads, Brexit has had a very unpleasant polarising effect here, and there are high emotions and strong feelings either way, so people (certainly in the circles in move in) are loath to open discussions of Brexit with strangers, or even friends and family, for fear of encountering conflict.

As an example my wife and I, having worked for many years in a company with strong EU links and having friendships with European colleagues, are very pro-EU and strong Remainers, whereas her parents are rabid, anti-immigration Brexiteers. We all made our positions crystal-clear before the referendum and, in the interests of family harmony, the subject of Brexit has been taboo ever since - we simply never refer to Brexit in their company.

And amongst our wider circle of friends and colleagues, it’s understood that Brexit is an emotive subject so, rather than getting into heated discussions, raising blood-pressures, and risking relationships, we and they keep our views to ourselves - the nearest I’ve got to a Brexit discussion face-to-face has been a very tentative, “Are you a Leaver or Remainer” from someone I hadn’t seen for thirty years and met up with for a lunch date, and a response of. “Oh!” and a rapid change of subject when I said I was a Remainer.

So I’m not surprised about your perception that it’s generally ‘Radio Silence’ - my own experience is that, unless they are amongst a circle of like-minded friends, people prefer not to risk the possibly unpleasant repercussions of in-person Brexit-talk and, TBH, I think most of us are sick to the back teeth of the sheer stupidity of the entire debacle.

I wonder if others here have the same experiences?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Stanron
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:49 PM

A long exit is now considered to be possible. A long extension to our exit was never my first preference. However it will give leavers the chance to get rid of Mrs May, (who has failed in all her objectives) and elect a new leader. There is a chance that a new leader will actually believe in Brexit. If the Tory party cannot supply a leader who believes in Brexit it doesn't deserve to rule, and, probably, won't rule for maybe a decade or more.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mg
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:08 PM

I am totally confused and try to follow it. Just left england yesterday. Thought it would be discussed endlessly. Heard only a couple of people mention it. Rest radio silence.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 05:01 PM

Oops for the second time today, Bonnie! ;-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 04:54 PM

PS I forgot to ask ............... any good news about Brexit yet?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:41 PM

Thank you Monique.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Monique
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:17 PM

Link

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Raggytash
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:09 PM

In addition to all the negative forecast over the past three years the IMF today has predicted a 2 year recession for the UK should we crash out without a deal and also predicts 'long-lasting negative impacts' on both the UK and the EU.

I suspect that the EU will be able to cope with such impact far better than the UK.

Could someone please link to the article in todays Guardian' it's under the main banner headline.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 02:21 PM

Oborne piece is here:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-m

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 01:26 PM

With talk of "perfidious Albion" as if it is something to be proud of, several threatening   disruption at the EU (again as if it was praiseworthy), and criticism of the queen for not blocking Copper's bill, there is still "room for improvement" as many a school report has said.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:30 PM

Perhaps the Brexiteers-with-Brains are finally coming to their senses? Just a real shame it’s taken so long, and they’ve got us into this disastrous debacle that’s made the U.K. the laughing-stock of the world - even more than the US.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:26 PM

That’s the article that Bonnie linked to above I think, Steve?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 12:21 PM

Amazingly, Peter Oborne, Mail columnist and arch-brexiteer, has changed his mind. There's a long piece by him on the opendemocracy.net website. It an enticing read by a man who now makes most of the points and more that remainers have always made.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 06:25 AM

It seems 'Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, has just told ITV that it would be "fantastic" if the EU were willing to reopen negotiations on the controversial Northern Ireland backstop'


Yes, that the EU might reopen the Withdrawal agreement at this stage is indeed fantastical thinking.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 09 Apr 19 - 03:06 AM

I'm guessing that Max has been doing some major work on Mudcat's innards - it's been like this here in The Backwoods for three weeks or more.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 08:34 PM

And that's precisely what has had the ERGs throwing tantrums. Which have all been epic fails.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 08:29 PM

(Sorry - having AWFUL hassles getting Mudcat to post stuff)

How can you possibly know that two days before the PM herself does? Europe doesn't want a SHORT extension, but have repeatedly indicated they'd be open to a flexible long one. That's been repeated in several of the E27 heads' Twitter feeds. Barnier was here (Ireland) today. He and Varadkar had this to say:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/brexit-varadkar-tells-may-of-openness-to-deadline-extension-1.3853160

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Donuel
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 07:52 PM

Well stick me in an Anderson shelter and call me shorty.
You are finally out of extensions.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 05:03 PM

O course asking for an extension doesn't mean getting it. The only extension she could get is a long one - and there has to be something that could get things sorted, such as a public vote of some kind.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 03:32 PM

It's passed the Lords. Graun live feed sez:

The Cooper Letwin Bill has been given an unopposed third reading in the Lords and now goes back to the Commons. The Leader of the Commons has said the government will not stand in its way and will schedule time for debate tomorrow if the Bill gets royal assent this evening. But Andrea Leadsom has denounced the Bill as a “huge dog’s dinner”.

Well, she WOULD, wouldn't she?

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 02:04 PM

In addition to finally admitting they need to find and prepare candidates to contest the EU elections, the government also seems to think Cooper's bill will get passed today:


The Commons Leader, Andrea Leadsom, has confirmed the government is expected to bring forward a motion to extend the Brexit process. Making a business statement to MPs, she has said:

In the event the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 5) Bill receives royal assent today, the House may be expected to approve a motion relating to section one of the Bill – to seek an extension of the period specified in Article 50 (3) of the Treaty on European Union.


(I - and I imagine thousands of others - got an email from Labour two days asking if I wanted to put my name forward as a MEP candidate. I think not.)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Bonnie Shaljean
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 01:25 PM

Even some hardline Tory journalists are changing their minds:

"I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again"

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-m

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 01:24 PM

It really doesn't matter whether the ERG vote for the deal or not, even if Theresa manages to get another vote on it. The DUP is never going to accept it - they see it as damaging their link to Britain, and losing Brexit is no threat to them. Nor is the SNP, for markedly different reasons (they see it as damaging their hopes of getting out of the Union). Which means, without the backing of at least a bunch of Labour or Liberal MPs, it could never pass, even if every single Tory came on board.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 12:14 PM

Sorry, that shoulda bin ‘the smug, obnoxious Bridgen’.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 10:50 AM

I never thought I’d draw pleasure from agreeing with a Tory Lord, but when Finkelstein told the obnoxious Bridgen the truth on PL today, I could have kissed him (almost...)!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 10:18 AM

Daniel Finkelstein, the Conservative peer and Times columnist, made this comment on Politics Live Andrew Bridgen, but I am sure he believes it applies to all the Brexiteers in Parliament:


You have not got the votes in parliament. It is really hard dealing with this, because it seems to me so daft, to use a polite word for it. You can’t get no-deal through parliament because 400 MPs are against it. It doesn’t matter who the leader of the Conservative party is. This is not about Theresa May. And one of the reasons you failed to get rid of her last time you pointlessly made a vote of no confidence in her, that just resulted in strengthening her for a year, is that getting rid of her would make no difference. And it is failing to appreciate that that has meant that you have over-played your hand, over and over again, and are going to end up possibly with a second referendum on a soft Brexit, and possibly a Corbyn government thrown in. The tactical stupidity of this is breathtaking

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 09:00 AM

"ERG refusenik Mark Francois has written to Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee, calling for an “informal ‘Indicative Vote'” on Theresa May’s leadership of the Conservative Party. The rules say that formal votes initiated by letters to the 1922 Committee chairman can only take place once a year…

The letter doesn’t hold back, beginning with “Enough is enough! If she goes by Wednesday we can Leave on Friday.” It ends with “she said ‘I will continue to serve fior as long as you wish me to’, it is now time to test that wish.”

What a fine fellow!

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:58 AM

I have just watched a Royal Institution programme on mathematical errors (I know, I know) and, for a couple of examples (one on lei lines and one on people being photographed as a child with a future spouse in the background) it talked about something closely linked to confirmation bias. Anyway, the salient point applies to Brexit, even though it was not mentioned in the lecture:

You cannot demonstrate a no-deal is working by pointing to examples where is has worked (or, for example, how well prepared the civil service is). What you have to show is the paucity of examples where it has not worked (eg how few people who are not civil servants are unprepared.)

I thought it worth making that clarification at the start of this week where something or nothing might finally happen.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM

You could be right, Steve. I had the idea that the whole negotiation fiasco was a charade to ensure we stay in the EU without the Tories losing face. They are trying to figure out a way to blame someone else for their cock up. Up to now they seem to be failing on that front as well. We can but hope :-)

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Jim Carroll
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:51 AM

"I'm predicting that we won't leave the EU. I don't know why I think that..."
Hope springs eternal Steve
At the rate things are moving, I doubt if many of us will be around to see it happen - our legacy to our grandchildren, may their god help them
Jim

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:39 AM

Shhh, everybody...

I'm predicting that we won't leave the EU. I don't know why I think that...

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:33 AM

I will second that. The thread is supposed to be about brexit.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:31 AM

Seconded. It would be good if we just didn't mention him at all and even better if we just ignore any new posts.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 04:22 AM

Many thanks to whoever cleaned up the mess. It must have been a dirty job and your efforts are much appreciated.

Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 08 Apr 19 - 02:45 AM

Britain poised for authoritarianism

While it is never a idea to take any survey too literally especially when looking at the exact percentages, this one does seem to raise a genuine concern. Parliament has certainly not covered itself in glory for a long time and, while you might pick out different things depending on which you side of the referendum you choose, there are plenty of things that are problematical. Trump, whatever your view of him, is not a eule-follower and there is no reason at all the UK could not end up with someone in power even less concerned with the rules. Brexit is certainly a mechanism that could be exploited to assist them.