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BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?

Steve Shaw 31 Jan 19 - 05:46 PM
Backwoodsman 31 Jan 19 - 05:41 PM
Steve Shaw 31 Jan 19 - 05:17 PM
Iains 31 Jan 19 - 04:27 PM
Dave the Gnome 31 Jan 19 - 04:03 PM
Steve Shaw 31 Jan 19 - 04:02 PM
Backwoodsman 31 Jan 19 - 03:37 PM
Dave the Gnome 31 Jan 19 - 03:33 PM
Iains 31 Jan 19 - 03:08 PM
Dave the Gnome 31 Jan 19 - 02:45 PM
DMcG 31 Jan 19 - 01:14 PM
Iains 31 Jan 19 - 12:48 PM
Iains 31 Jan 19 - 12:34 PM
peteaberdeen 31 Jan 19 - 10:36 AM
Dave the Gnome 31 Jan 19 - 05:45 AM
Dave the Gnome 31 Jan 19 - 04:12 AM
Iains 30 Jan 19 - 12:44 PM
mayomick 30 Jan 19 - 12:38 PM
mayomick 30 Jan 19 - 12:12 PM
Backwoodsman 30 Jan 19 - 12:08 PM
Backwoodsman 30 Jan 19 - 12:04 PM
mayomick 30 Jan 19 - 12:02 PM
Iains 30 Jan 19 - 11:46 AM
Iains 30 Jan 19 - 11:30 AM
Mossback 30 Jan 19 - 10:37 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 09:36 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 09:12 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 08:29 AM
Iains 30 Jan 19 - 08:24 AM
McGrath of Harlow 30 Jan 19 - 08:14 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 06:41 AM
Nigel Parsons 30 Jan 19 - 05:54 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 05:31 AM
Backwoodsman 30 Jan 19 - 04:48 AM
Dave the Gnome 30 Jan 19 - 04:19 AM
Backwoodsman 30 Jan 19 - 02:34 AM
DMcG 30 Jan 19 - 02:19 AM
Backwoodsman 30 Jan 19 - 02:00 AM
mayomick 29 Jan 19 - 09:45 PM
Steve Shaw 29 Jan 19 - 07:59 PM
Steve Shaw 29 Jan 19 - 07:03 PM
bobad 29 Jan 19 - 06:29 PM
Steve Shaw 29 Jan 19 - 06:25 PM
Iains 29 Jan 19 - 04:33 PM
DMcG 29 Jan 19 - 04:03 PM
Steve Shaw 29 Jan 19 - 03:49 PM
DMcG 29 Jan 19 - 03:42 PM
DMcG 29 Jan 19 - 02:02 PM
Backwoodsman 29 Jan 19 - 01:33 PM
Steve Shaw 29 Jan 19 - 01:25 PM
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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 05:46 PM

Thanks, John. You can't beat the actual facts of the matter, can you?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 05:41 PM

All perfectly verifiable by checking the Research Paper to the Referendum Bill. The relevant section 4.1 states:-

"4.1 Types of referendum
This Private Member’s Bill requires a referendum to be held on the question of the UK’s continued membership of the European Union (EU) before the end of 2017. It does not contain any requirement on the UK Government to implement the results of the referendum, nor set a time limit by which a vote to leave the EU should be implemented. Instead, this is a type of referendum known as pre-legislative or consultative, which enables the electorate to voice an opinion which then influences the Government in its policy decisions. The referendums held in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in 1997 and 1998 are examples of this type, where opinion was tested before legislation is introduced. The UK does not have a written codified constitution which would require the results of a referendum to be implemented, unlike for example the Republic of Ireland, where the circumstances in which a binding referendum are held is set out in its constitution."


I've emboldened the appropriate sentences.

The whole Research Paper to the Bill can be found here


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 05:17 PM

I'll say this once and for all, not to any specific individual on this forum but to everyone listening. You can check it out until you are blue in the face for all I care, but this is the truth: ready?

Ahem.

The referendum was advisory. It has no constitutional force to create a mandate, no matter what any fly-by-night politician said or whatever any desperado in this forum tells you. That is the fact of tbe matter, the law of the land, and no amount of spin can change that. OK, maybe it doesn't make any bloody difference. But be assured that anyone saying that they are obeying the will of the people with no alternative, or pretending that the referendum gave them a mandate, is lying in their teeth. All constitutionally checkable and not up for alternative opinions. Cheers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 04:27 PM

One of the great lies is that the referendum gave the government a mandate

Mandate:1)    an official order or commission to do something.
       2)    the authority to carry out a policy, regarded as given
             by the electorate to a party or candidate that wins an
             election.

David Cameron has said the British people must "have their say" on Europe as he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election.

The prime minister said he wanted to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU and then give people the "simple choice" between staying in under those new terms, or leaving the EU.
"It is time for the British people to have their say," he said. "It is time to settle this European question in British politics. I say to the British people: this will be your decision."

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.
I rest my case!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 04:03 PM

Lord Snooty and his pals? It would be like a comic strip it it wasn't so tragic!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 04:02 PM

Actually, I am snowed in, and the bugger wasn't forecast - it was supposed to bloody rain!!! Don't worry, I have all my post-no-deal stockpiles to hand, though I forgot to buy a ton of air freshener to go with all these tins of baked beans...

That was a fantastic post, Pete. One of the great lies is that the referendum gave the government a mandate. It did not. There was nothing constitutionally mandating about that result, only the spouting of a brainless pig-molester. Like all referendums in this country it was advisory. And Theresa May only managed to obtain anything even remotely resembling a "mandate" by buying off a tawdry bunch of sectarian terrorist apologists.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 03:37 PM

I reckon he'll have plenty stockpiled, Dave, ready for when Jake Rich-Mong and his cronies get their way and we crash out on 29/3/19, and the shortages begin! :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 03:33 PM

Hey, just realised! Is Steve snowed in? Who can arrange an airdrop of Tuscan bean casserole and Nero D'Avolo to Cornwall? :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 03:08 PM

"If enough of us take action we may finally see the back of the shower of self serving shits trying to govern us!"

Those ruling you have a mandate from a referendum, backed by a Parliamentary majority. The only nonsense spouted is your own and "taking action" sounds like revolution to me. But I am sure the counter-terrorism directorate keeps tabs on wannabe revolutionaries such as yourself and would nip any threatened action in the bud. This allows we law abiding citizens to sleep safe in our beds at night.

It is of course a public duty to report individuals threatening insurrection. After all it is but another form of terrorism!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 02:45 PM

Well said, Pete. It worries me too but I am hopeful that the backlash is begining. We see the types you mention everywhere (just look on here!) But more and more people seem to be standing up to the nonsense spouted. If enough of us take action we may finally see the back of the shower of self serving shits trying to govern us!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 01:14 PM

Talking of being depressed, it is depressing that so many government speakers are now saying we have now told the EU what we want, as they have asked.

No you haven't. You have told them what you don't want (yet again.) Even if the backstop were reopened, and an 'alternative approach' to the backstop agreed, there is no certainty at all that a significant section of the Brexiteers do not simply say "We don't like that either." The Brady amendment says they will support May's deal if she gets a change but Rees-Mogg and others made sure it was noted in the debate they won't have to. Thus neatly demolishing the entire declared purpose of the amendment.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 12:48 PM

we have been let down by the politicians but there seems no sign of a fightback from the overwhelming majority of decent people who are being led down the river by this incompetent, self-serving government and the people who are happy to lie for them. it doesn't matter how many thousands of people will stroll down to trafalgar square occasionally

The statistics totally destroy your argument. Read my post: Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:44 PM

Terrible things facts!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 12:34 PM

From: Dave the Gnome - PM
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 04:12 AM
"No-Deal Brexit: Fresh Fruit And Veg Will Rot At The Border, Supplier Warns
Industry faces "disaster" as only root vegetables may be on sale, and cost of ready meals could surge."


I do like the way the leftards pick up on every piece of negative news about Brexit confident that everything they read is accurate. It demonstrates very clearly that they do not even do five minutes research on the subject.
Fact: Fresh fruit 70% sourced from outside the EU.
       Vegetables 30% sourced from outside the EU

We also supply the bulk of Irelands fruit and vegetables and export vegetables to the EU. If EU food to the UK rots on the quayside it will no doubt join fleets of rusting german cars denied their export market. Eating out of season produce is a modern development.Locally sourced produce is probably a healthier option, and far fresher.

It simply ain't going to happen, the resulting glut in europe will bankrupt the producers.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: peteaberdeen
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 10:36 AM

brexit is the conclusion of 40 years of tory infighting yet we are all dragged into it. it is the failing of all our politicians to stand up to the racists and old empire neanderthals of the far-right reaches of the tories, ukip and the knuckle -draggers beyond.
it is their failing and ours too - who have never got it together to rid ourselves of the tories and their deadening, depressing mind set. seems there will always be a large minority who will worship/vote for the toffs who love to despise and ignore us. flag-waving dimwits who have no faith in themselves or their fellow citizens to run our countries without the divine touch of our betters.

this is all getting me down - really, who could have imagined the situation where the likes of farage and rees - mogg could be taken seriously? what has become of my country? what happens next? i'm sure for many people this is an intriguing political drama - but for those of us who have to face aggressive far-right leavers every day in the pub, round town and at work 'traitor!' 'you'll end up in hospital talking like that' - where racist, anti-muslimism is the default position of staff in my organisation, sadly it is a daily problem.

we have talked about moving back to scotland where the air is more breathable or maybe further afield - just now i see very little hope for little england . we have been let down by the politicians but there seems no sign of a fightback from the overwhelming majority of decent people who are being led down the river by this incompetent, self-serving government and the people who are happy to lie for them. it doesn't matter how many thousands of people will stroll down to trafalgar square occasionally - we seem to have accepted our fate and will take whatever chaos our leaders arrange for us.

- for fucksake!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 05:45 AM

A good summary...

Phil Dunn
10 January 2018 · Bournemouth

UK: We want a unicorn
EU: We don't do unicorns. None of us have unicorns, There are no unicorns.

UK: But we promised unicorns and the people have spoken. We want unicorns
EU: That's not really our problem. There are no unicorns

UK: You're being unreasonable. We demand unicorns
EU: There are no unicorns

UK: You are bullying us with your outrageous demands!
EU: Eh? We just said there are no unicorns because... well... there are no unicorns.

UK: OK! We get your game. You're stalling! We're prepared to walk away without a unicorn you know! (Thinks: that'll show'em)
EU: There are no unicorns.

UK: You bastards! Nigel was right. You're out to destroy us. We'll go and speak to Donald instead. HE has unicorns!
EU: Errrrrmmm, there ARE no unicorns.

UK: That does it. This is our final position. We want unicorns...right now... gold plated... fluent in greek....ermmm.... or we're off!
EU: Are you still here? There are no unicorns.

UK: DAMMIT! What about a packet of crisps then?
EU: Sorry we're busy.

#StopBrexit #ExitBrexit #NoUnicorns


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 31 Jan 19 - 04:12 AM

More "good news" :-(

Fresh Fruit And Veg Will Rot At The Border


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:44 PM

Brexit is usually portrayed as an exclusively right- wing project
It may be portrayed that way, especially on this forum, but unfortunately the facts do not support it. That is why the left resort to constant swearing and insults in a futile endeavour to hide these self evident truths

"While referendum boundaries and parliamentary boundaries differ the closest estimates shows the following.
These estimates show that while the national result of the referendum was relatively close, with 52% voting Leave and 48% voting Remain, a much larger majority of parliamentary seats voted to Leave – with 64% of seats in Great Britain voting Leave. (This is likely due to the uneven distribution of Remain voters, who tended to cluster in large cities, while Leave voters were more evenly spread.)

According to these estimates, around 75% of constituencies that were won by the Conservatives in the 2017 general election voted to Leave, while around 61% of Labour constituencies voted to Leave. All seats won by the Scottish National Party and the Green Party, and a majority of the seats won by the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru, voted to Remain.

When you factor in the uncertainty, the figures for how each party’s seats voted changes a bit. By this count, 62% of Conservative seats voted Leave, with 21% uncertain and 17% Remain. Labour’s seats, meanwhile, voted 56% Leave, 8% uncertain, and 36% Remain."


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mayomick
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:38 PM

Backwoodsman ,certain sections of Labour helped Boris J and Farage out. Dennis Skinner another left Brexiteer and Morning Star reader George Galloway another . I have asked friends in the Communist Party of Ireland -which bizarrely supported and campaigned for Brexit - what percentage of the vote did they think the left contributed to the result ;I have asked supporters of the pro-Brexit People Before Profit group here the same question.They always get uncomfortable and say something like “a very small percentage” , which makes them as irrelevant as you thinks they are . But these groups are not irrelevant .If there was proportional representation in the UK as there is in Ireland, I’m sure such left Brexiteer groups would have several MPs .Getting groups like that to at least abstain in future referendums or to leave the Brexit coalition is the key to overturning the disaster in my opinon.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mayomick
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:12 PM

Brexit is usually portrayed as an exclusively right- wing project, but in my opinion, the 2016 referendum result would have been different if the Leave campaign hadn’t been supported by left Brexiteer groups such as the Communist Party, the SWP and Socialist Party.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:08 PM

Mick, despite the Tories' attempt to make it so, Brexit is not a party-political issue. And if May had made it a cross-Party project right from the start, she wouldn't have been in the shit-pile she's in now. All the way through, she's had a policy of keeping the other parties at arm's length. It's a bit of a cheek to complain now that Corbyn and Labour aren't helping her out.

She made her bed, let her lie in it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:04 PM

Just on the BBC News App...

Brexit: Backstop is 'part and parcel' of the deal, says Michel Barnier - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47061650


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mayomick
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 12:02 PM

“the Communist Party of Britain, and its Brexit policy has exactly the same value as that of the CPoB - precisely Sweet Fuck All.”

The CPB has a lot of influence , Backwoodsman . The fact that Jeremy Corbyn supports and writes regularly in its daily paper, the Morning Star , goes some way to explaining his inability to lead a fight against Brexit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 11:46 AM

Brexit has exposed an unfortunate reality – that the media’s commitment to reporting the facts, pure and simple, leaves a lot to be desired. And while this could be the product of bad journalism and poor research, there is also the possibility that that its ‘research and inform’ function has been usurped by a role as ‘narrative manufacturers’. And that’s a big worry.

Why did some South Asians vote for a campaign that was, at times, seen as bigoted and xenophobic? Perhaps voters didn’t feel particularly European; or perhaps the Leave camp’s pro-Commonwealth rhetoric pulled hard on the heartstrings; or perhaps the supposedly xenophobic and racist elements of the Leave campaign just didn’t offend many well-integrated, South Asian voters who strongly identify with the UK.

https://unherd.com/2019/01/brexits-unheard-voices/

This rather destroys the narrative repeatedly thrown at us by few lefties here. Racists, Bigots. I rather think not!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 11:30 AM

Simon Wren-Lewis (Emeritus Professor of Economics and Fellow of Merton College, University of Oxford)
On 27 September 2015 it was announced that he had been appointed to the British Labour Party's Economic Advisory Committee, convened by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and reporting to Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn.

No guessing as to which side he is batting for then.
Project fear by a professor.

Now the true story by the Gruniard no less:
Why economic forecasting has always been a flawed science
While accepting the Nobel prize for economics, Friedrich Hayek made an astonishing admission. Not only were economists unsure about their predictions, he noted, but their tendency to present their findings with the certainty of the language of science was misleading and “may have deplorable effects”.

This revelation, made about 40 years ago, is a crucial one and yet it has been largely forgotten or ignored.


https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/02/economic-forecasting-flawed-science-data


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Mossback
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 10:37 AM

The reason why those overseas can see that Brexit is utterly, utterly stupid ... is because those overseas are not influenced by the UK media.

Not quite.

The U.S. is constantly polluted by a tsunami of Murdoch pigs**t as well.

I expect the Trumpist f**kwits think Brexit is at least as good an idea as "The Wall".


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 09:36 AM

Interesting article from Simon Wren-Lewis (Emeritus Professor of Economics and Fellow of Merton College, University of Oxford) in the New Statesman.

Why the UK cannot see that Brexit is utterly, utterly stupid

A point I have made all along is that if the likes of Murdoch and Rothermere want to leave, you can bet your bottom dollar that it is only to benefit them. The author of the article makes the point

If people have doubts about my argument that the media played a central role is misdirecting the public then (and many do), well Brexit should be a test case. And so far Brexit has gone exactly as these newspaper proprietors would have wished. Three coincidences is a row? The reason why those overseas can see that Brexit is utterly, utterly stupid while the UK stockpiles food and medicine, and the Prime Minister tries to blackmail MPs into supporting her deal, is because those overseas are not influenced by the UK media.

I suspect there will be no sensible arguments against Prof. Wren-Lewis's views.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 09:12 AM

How Businesses Are Preparing for Brexit

Makes grim reading. Doesn't affect me but it will affect many others. My children and grandchildren included.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 08:29 AM

On the more serious side, it does worry me that people are using the card game analogies. 'We hold all the cards'. 'We need to call the EU's bluff'. Even if these were true, to liken the fate of a nation to a game of chance seems to be somewhat frivolous to say the least. We have already seen the effect of Cameron banking on the referendum saying stay. Are memories really so short?


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 08:24 AM

Rafael Behr in today's Guardian:...............

Why on earth would anyone sensible wish to waste their energy wading through the partisan ramblings of a lefty media hack?

More fruitful to take heed of the ruminations of the Nation's leader!

Brought by courtesy of Mr Guido. The font of all topical and accurate reporting.



Backstop Alternatives


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: McGrath of Harlow
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 08:14 AM

It's unicorns all the way down...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 06:41 AM

You'll like this one, BWM

"Deluded" Boris and "unicorn" Raab get shut down on live TV

Looks like more and more people are understanding that the promises made are the stuff of fantasy.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 05:54 AM

From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 07:03 PM

From Rafael Behr in today's Guardian:


"This new Malthouse doctrine is really the old hardline Brexit delusions in shinier shoes. It is the bluff that Britain holds all the cards, and that if we show enough contempt for treaties and economic logic, Brussels will be intimidated into granting favours that could not be won by conventional diplomacy.

There are two possible reasons for pursuing that strategy. One is stupidity: failure to grasp what the negotiations so far have actually been about and how May's deal was their logical outcome. The second is cynical vandalism: knowing that the plan will fail and hoping, when it does, to pin blame for a chaotic no-deal Brexit on Brussels intransigence. In truth it would be the fruition of Eurosceptic zealotry.

It is sad to see self-styled Tory "moderates" taken in by such a con and alarming to hear May indulge it in the Commons as a "serious proposal". Her next move is to Brussels, in a quest for something that two years of negotiation have already failed to uncover. But it seems the way to unite Tories these days is to expunge the period 2017 to 2018 from memory. May still acts as if Brexit is something that must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first, and only then shared with the rest of Europe. The British public is at the very back of the queue."

Couldn't have put it better meself. Just watch the machinations and the twisting and the lying to come in the next couple of weeks. The last sentence is instructive: the interests of the people really don't seem to matter any more.

You're right. You couldn't have put it better yourself. That doesn't mean that it is accurate.
May does NOT "act as if it must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first". She excluded the majority of the conservative party from any discussions, and would not be led by her "Brexit ministers". She presented the cabinet with a fait accompli at Chequers, in such a manner that made it very difficult for them to object (at that time). They were incommunicado, their mobiles handed in, and had no transport home if they left the cabinet at that stage.
The 'agreement' she offered them at that time had already been shown to (some) EU leaders, so the view of the Conservative MPs (be it Cabinet, MPs at Westminster, or the party as a whole) did not get a chance to show 'satisfaction' (or otherwise) with the agreement ahead of it being made public to the rest of the country.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 05:31 AM

A bit of light relief

Britain to repeat its Brexit offer loudly and slowly until the foreigners get it

Well, it would be but for some people... :-)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 04:48 AM

They don't get rich by letting money go from their greedy, grasping hands, Dave!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Dave the Gnome
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 04:19 AM

I heard Rees-Mogg going on this morning about a no deal allowing us to exit without paying the debts currently owed to the EU. Just shows how he works. Got a lot in common with Trump.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 02:34 AM

'They' are heading for a No-Deal-Brexit, and delaying, delaying, delaying in order to fool the feeble-minded amongst us, when the true horror of what that means hits them, that's 'It's all the fault of the EU and their intransigence - they forced us into it, we had no alternative'.

But hey-ho, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jonathan Redwood, Philip May and his clients, and the tiny, immensely-wealthy cadre who give the Tories their orders will all be very happy as they continue their tax-avoidance schemes...


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 02:19 AM

One of the things at risk of being under-reported is that the Spelman amendment to oppose a no-deal was carried by 8.   

It has long been reported that a majority of the House are against no deal, and at first sight this bears that out. The margin is probably an underestimate, because May promised there would be another opportunity to oppose no-deal in February. Also, the fact that the vote was entirely symbolic adds fogginess: some will vote in favour of the amendment because it has no consequences, and some will not vote for it and risk upsetting the voters at home precisely because it has no effect.

But with all that said, 8 is a very thin margin. I am not at all confident that if it came to it, the House would oppose a no-deal in the final moments. There is something in game theory called 'The Tragedy of the Commons' (in the sense of commonly owned land); it is ironic that the House of Commons looks like it will be a perfect example.

Over on the earlier thread, I referred to a prediction Nigel had made that we would leave on 31st on WTO rules, whereas I predicted come the 1st April we would still be trying to decide what we are doing. That the house voted to adopt the policy of 'Wait for the Other Guy to Blink' (even though this is the antithesis of #taking back control') means I think Nigel's prediction is now the more likely. If May comes back in February with nothing from the EU, the house will simply say "Ah, that's what we expected. Let's keep waiting, the EU will crack in the end."


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 30 Jan 19 - 02:00 AM

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party also has a Brexit policy.

It's worth remembering that the OMRLP has exactly the same number of MPs as the Communist Party of Britain, and its Brexit policy has exactly the same value as that of the CPoB - precisely Sweet Fuck All.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: mayomick
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 09:45 PM

The Communist Party of Britain wants to Brexit under World Trade Organization rules. Peter Sutherland , the first Director-General of the World Trade Organization who drafted the organization’s rules was also an EU commissioner !


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 07:59 PM

And guess who said this in the debate:

“One has to keep in mind and respect the decision of the referendum, but that does not mean that you simply say that you’re going to drag the country out on terms that nobody seems to very much support towards a future which on the face of it looks pretty bad. And that is an abdication of our responsibility.”

Sometimes you come across something that makes you think "Why is he a Tory?" I might not agree much with the first bit, but the rest is measured and good. Why, 'twas Dominic Grieve!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 07:03 PM

From Rafael Behr in today's Guardian:

This new Malthouse doctrine is really the old hardline Brexit delusions in shinier shoes. It is the bluff that Britain holds all the cards, and that if we show enough contempt for treaties and economic logic, Brussels will be intimidated into granting favours that could not be won by conventional diplomacy.

There are two possible reasons for pursuing that strategy. One is stupidity: failure to grasp what the negotiations so far have actually been about and how May’s deal was their logical outcome. The second is cynical vandalism: knowing that the plan will fail and hoping, when it does, to pin blame for a chaotic no-deal Brexit on Brussels intransigence. In truth it would be the fruition of Eurosceptic zealotry.

It is sad to see self-styled Tory “moderates” taken in by such a con and alarming to hear May indulge it in the Commons as a “serious proposal”. Her next move is to Brussels, in a quest for something that two years of negotiation have already failed to uncover. But it seems the way to unite Tories these days is to expunge the period 2017 to 2018 from memory. May still acts as if Brexit is something that must be settled to the satisfaction of the Conservative party first, and only then shared with the rest of Europe. The British public is at the very back of the queue.


Couldn't have put it better meself. Just watch the machinations and the twisting and the lying to come in the next couple of weeks. The last sentence is instructive: the interests of the people really don't seem to matter any more.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: bobad
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 06:29 PM

I'm going to be in touch with a mod when I can make a case.

Bully boy's at it again I see. The mods have him pegged.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 06:25 PM

So the EU will rightly tell May to bugger off, as THEIR remit is to act in the best interests of its members, ie Ireland in this case, not to pander to the naughty child who's thrown his toys (and himself) out of the pram. Mucking about with the backstop is tantamount to selling Ireland down the river and risking tearing up the Good Friday Agreement. But it won't be spun that way. Oh, no. It will be the EU being bullying, intransigent and inflexible. Just watch this space.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Iains
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 04:33 PM

39 billion is a very enticing persuader. We are not talking about an
Ein Bahn Strasse.Now the PM has had her mandate renewed she can play a very strong hand.
Spiffing to see steptoe senior and his front bench looking as though they have been chewing on wasps!


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 04:03 PM

And the EU immediately responded in writing that the agreement will not be reopened.

It is all going so well.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 03:49 PM

So they've passed that silly amendment. More time wasted, more playing dice with the well-being of the country.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 03:42 PM

Faisal Islam(@faisalislam)
Go9d summaey from sky news:


Commons in short, so far.

We totally reject May’s Deal
We reject No Deal
We reject the power to stop No Deal ourselves.

Now voting to give the PM a mandate to change a backstop she negotiated that has already been rejected by negotiation partners.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: DMcG
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 02:02 PM

Stephen Barclay in summing has been asked three times (at least) what the phrase "alternative arrangements" means in the amendment the government is backing. After a series of dodges he finally had to say they would be whatever we could negotiate (ie no idea!)


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Backwoodsman
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 01:33 PM

Their wealth, and their ability to continue to run their tax-avoidance scams, are their top priority. The rest of us can go hang, they don't give a FF about us.


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Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 29 Jan 19 - 01:25 PM

They're holding one to decide what to do just before the Brady vote tonight. You wouldn't think there was a country at stake...


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