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BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation

Joe Offer 05 Oct 17 - 01:12 AM
Kampervan 05 Oct 17 - 02:16 AM
Monique 05 Oct 17 - 02:51 AM
Teribus 05 Oct 17 - 02:55 AM
Joe Offer 05 Oct 17 - 02:57 AM
Kampervan 05 Oct 17 - 02:58 AM
Joe Offer 05 Oct 17 - 03:01 AM
Teribus 05 Oct 17 - 03:12 AM
Tradsinger 05 Oct 17 - 03:15 AM
Teribus 05 Oct 17 - 03:33 AM
Steve Shaw 05 Oct 17 - 05:23 AM
Raggytash 05 Oct 17 - 05:32 AM
Raggytash 05 Oct 17 - 05:33 AM
Teribus 05 Oct 17 - 05:55 AM
Teribus 05 Oct 17 - 05:57 AM
Iains 05 Oct 17 - 06:10 AM
Mrrzy 05 Oct 17 - 09:47 AM
Donuel 05 Oct 17 - 09:51 AM
Bonzo3legs 05 Oct 17 - 04:01 PM
Iains 05 Oct 17 - 04:17 PM
Mr Red 05 Oct 17 - 04:56 PM
Iains 06 Oct 17 - 12:02 PM
Mrrzy 06 Oct 17 - 12:42 PM
Mr Red 06 Oct 17 - 05:00 PM
vectis 07 Oct 17 - 03:27 AM
Gutcher 07 Oct 17 - 02:53 PM
Iains 08 Oct 17 - 04:35 AM
Charmion 10 Oct 17 - 10:52 AM
akenaton 10 Oct 17 - 02:16 PM
Steve Shaw 10 Oct 17 - 03:54 PM
Iains 10 Oct 17 - 06:38 PM
Mrrzy 11 Oct 17 - 01:57 AM
Keith A of Hertford 12 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM
Steve Shaw 12 Oct 17 - 06:21 AM
Charmion 12 Oct 17 - 10:21 AM
Nigel Parsons 12 Oct 17 - 10:51 AM
Iains 12 Oct 17 - 10:57 AM
Steve Shaw 12 Oct 17 - 11:48 AM
Iains 12 Oct 17 - 01:43 PM
Steve Shaw 12 Oct 17 - 01:50 PM
Iains 12 Oct 17 - 02:29 PM
Keith A of Hertford 12 Oct 17 - 02:30 PM
Steve Shaw 12 Oct 17 - 05:03 PM
Steve Shaw 12 Oct 17 - 05:08 PM
Allan Conn 13 Oct 17 - 02:54 AM
akenaton 13 Oct 17 - 03:28 AM
Iains 13 Oct 17 - 03:40 AM
Iains 13 Oct 17 - 04:09 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 05:10 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 05:29 AM
akenaton 13 Oct 17 - 05:45 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM
akenaton 13 Oct 17 - 06:26 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 06:56 AM
Keith A of Hertford 13 Oct 17 - 07:33 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 08:50 AM
bobad 13 Oct 17 - 09:17 AM
Nigel Parsons 13 Oct 17 - 10:02 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 11:20 AM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 11:28 AM
Iains 13 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 12:21 PM
Keith A of Hertford 13 Oct 17 - 12:47 PM
Iains 13 Oct 17 - 01:42 PM
Steve Shaw 13 Oct 17 - 03:17 PM
Keith A of Hertford 14 Oct 17 - 05:47 AM
Nigel Parsons 14 Oct 17 - 02:43 PM
Nigel Parsons 14 Oct 17 - 02:50 PM
Iains 14 Oct 17 - 03:45 PM
Steve Shaw 14 Oct 17 - 06:30 PM
Iains 15 Oct 17 - 04:03 AM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 04:44 AM
Allan Conn 15 Oct 17 - 07:03 AM
Keith A of Hertford 15 Oct 17 - 07:22 AM
akenaton 15 Oct 17 - 10:09 AM
Iains 15 Oct 17 - 10:23 AM
Nigel Parsons 15 Oct 17 - 11:01 AM
bobad 15 Oct 17 - 01:06 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 01:29 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 01:35 PM
Keith A of Hertford 15 Oct 17 - 01:44 PM
akenaton 15 Oct 17 - 01:49 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 02:23 PM
Iains 15 Oct 17 - 03:23 PM
akenaton 15 Oct 17 - 03:28 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 03:30 PM
Steve Shaw 15 Oct 17 - 03:31 PM
Keith A of Hertford 16 Oct 17 - 03:15 AM
Steve Shaw 16 Oct 17 - 03:20 AM
Iains 16 Oct 17 - 04:03 AM
Keith A of Hertford 16 Oct 17 - 05:36 AM
Nigel Parsons 16 Oct 17 - 07:00 AM
Steve Shaw 16 Oct 17 - 07:16 AM
akenaton 16 Oct 17 - 07:45 AM
Steve Shaw 16 Oct 17 - 12:40 PM
akenaton 16 Oct 17 - 04:36 PM
Iains 16 Oct 17 - 05:07 PM
Steve Shaw 16 Oct 17 - 06:42 PM
Steve Shaw 16 Oct 17 - 06:44 PM
Keith A of Hertford 17 Oct 17 - 03:43 AM
Steve Shaw 17 Oct 17 - 04:23 AM
Iains 17 Oct 17 - 09:08 AM
Keith A of Hertford 17 Oct 17 - 09:54 AM
Steve Shaw 17 Oct 17 - 05:35 PM
akenaton 18 Oct 17 - 03:02 AM
Nigel Parsons 18 Oct 17 - 03:23 AM
Keith A of Hertford 18 Oct 17 - 04:59 AM
Steve Shaw 18 Oct 17 - 05:50 AM
Nigel Parsons 18 Oct 17 - 06:13 AM
Iains 18 Oct 17 - 10:28 AM
Greg F. 18 Oct 17 - 10:31 AM
Iains 18 Oct 17 - 10:36 AM
Steve Shaw 18 Oct 17 - 11:44 AM
Steve Shaw 18 Oct 17 - 11:54 AM
Keith A of Hertford 19 Oct 17 - 08:17 AM
Nigel Parsons 19 Oct 17 - 09:02 AM
Steve Shaw 19 Oct 17 - 10:39 AM
Steve Shaw 19 Oct 17 - 10:41 AM
Steve Shaw 19 Oct 17 - 10:42 AM
Iains 19 Oct 17 - 01:30 PM
Steve Shaw 19 Oct 17 - 02:17 PM
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Subject: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Joe Offer
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 01:12 AM

I think I have a fair understanding of political trends in most European nations, but I've been to Spain only once and only to the northern part, and I can't say I understand it very well. I see in Wikipedia that Catalonia is an "autonomous community" of Spain. Its capital is Barcelona, and it has a population of 7.5 million. Its official languages are Catalan and Occitan, not Spanish. The area is highly industrialized and quite wealthy, so I can see how Catalonian independence might be harmful to Spain.
But what does Catalonia have to gain from separation? Do the separatists want to remain part of the European Union? How can it survive as an independent nation with a population of only 7.5 million? Is its economy diverse enough for it to be independent?
What is the history of Catalonian autonomy and of its off-and-on union with Spain? Are there other "autonomous communities" in Spain?
What is the political climate in Catalonia, and what is it in other areas of Spain?
-Joe-


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Kampervan
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 02:16 AM

The questions that you raise are good ones.

Who would be responsible for the defence of independent Catalonia? Could they be financially independent?

Also, as a general question, is the current tendency of regions wanting independence from the larger state of which they are currently a part a good thing?

Scotland from the UK, the UK from the EU, various central European countries have been split into smaller units. Surely this makes them a lot more vulnerable to potential aggressors?
We all know that the UN and NATO for all their good intentions, are pretty toothless in the face of actual aggression.

Maybe its because the present generation has never experienced something like World War two and don't appreciate just how easily things can go wrong.

It seems to me that we are exposing ourselves in a very dangerous way.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Monique
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 02:51 AM

Spanish (Castilian) is the official language of all Spain whether the different autonomous communities have a different language of their own (Catalan and Aranese Occitan for Catalonia, Galician for Galice and Basque for the Basque Country) or not.
Spain used to be administratively divided in provinces that got much more autonomy after Franco's death.
Independence: Catalonia wouldn't be part of Spain but nor of the EU either (it'd take years), are they ready to coin their own money overnight... = big mess!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 02:55 AM

The UN may well be accurately described as "toothless" as it has no army to call on. In the face of actual aggression however NATO has proved to have been the most effective multinational military alliance in the history of the planet - it still is.

The EU Commission's desire for a Federal United States of Europe relies on the break up of the existing member states into regions and the eradication of the nation state and national identity. Only trouble with that is that at present they rely on financial contributions from individual member states to run the show.

In Spain the following regions may opt for "independence" along with EU membership which of course would mean that they were not independent at all - Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Region of Spain.

In France - As Iains pointed out there is a separatist movement in Brittany, there is also a French Basque region.

In Belgium - Wallonia and the Flemish Regions would part company at the drop of a hat.

In Germany - Bavaria would be only too happy to break away

In Italy there is a clear divide North and South and also Sardinia.

In the UK the SNP would, apparently, recommend swapping rule from Westminster to seeking rule from Brussels.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Joe Offer
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 02:57 AM

Hi, Kampervan -
I think the United States spends far too much money on defense, and I wish there were another way. If Catalonia and other small states can be part of the EU and NATO, I think they can defend themselves at a reasonable cost.
But I sure wish the US could spend less on defense and more on healthcare and education and other social needs.
-Joe-


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Kampervan
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 02:58 AM

A lot of people died in central Europe over the last few decades whilst NATO stood by and did nothing.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Joe Offer
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 03:01 AM

Specifics, Kampervan? Were these central European nations NATO members?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 03:12 AM

A lot of people died all over the place Kampervan, left to the UN alone many thousands more would have died. In Bosnia and in Kosovo the Germans managed to urge NATO (Military) action (This meant at the time it cut France out of the loop) and NATO intervention saved thousands of lives.

In Catalonia had the Spanish Government stuck to just declaring the recent referendum illegal and non-binding then given and aided every facility for the said referendum to go ahead peacefully the result would have been for Catalonia to remain as part of a unified Spain. As it is, by their actions they have promoted the cause of independence and bought themselves a shed load of trouble in the years to come.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Tradsinger
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 03:15 AM

Under Franco, Catalan culture and Catalan language were surpressed. You could be punished for speaking Catalan in the street or in school, so there has been for some time a repressed resentment of the Madrid government.

I personally am very wary of this movement towards independence - the argument seems to be that as Catalonia creates a lot of wealth for the Spanish nation, that the Catalans think they ought to keep it for themselves. Fair or not? Is there more stability in unity?

And what does Catalonia consist of? Linguistically it stretches into France (Perpignon) and Andorra, and related dialects are also spoken in Valencia and the Balaeric Islands. Does the UDI move include them?

I blame Brexit for all this mess - be careful what you wish for.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 03:33 AM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" - So a people's right of self-determination does not feature high on your list of human rights then Tradsinger?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:23 AM

EU countries do not endure "rule from Brussels." EU countries govern themselves. Here's an an article from the Financial Times that comprehensively explodes the myth that Teribus is trying to perpetuate. You'll have to google it yourself I'm afraid: "A Brexit myth of Brussels (mis)rule."

Franco still casts a long shadow in Spain. Catalonia, always a region that regarded itself as very distinct in terms of culture and language, was treated very brutally by him. The Spanish constitution states that Catalonia is a nationality. There is considerable resentment when Madrid is perceived as intruding into Catalan affairs. The clumsy interventions last week are only the latest manifestation of that, though a very serious one.

Self-determination is a grand thing but getting it right is a minefield. Most recent polls show only a slim majority in favour of independence, and not a majority of all the electorate. You could easily end up with a brexit-with-balls mess in which a third of the electorate drag Catalonia away from Spain. I wonder whose "rights" we'd be talking about then.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:32 AM

A Brexit Myth

There you go!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Raggytash
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:33 AM

Bugger !

There you don't go !!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:55 AM

Date of Shaw's FT article - 26th May 2016.

Date of the EU Referendum - 23rd June 2016.

Prior to that date every political party in the UK with the exception of UKIP was campaigning as hard as it could to achieve a Remain result. Loads of "doom'n'gloom" from establishment press and the Bank of England - all proved groundless.

Odd that the piece only covered the period BEFORE Maastricht.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Teribus
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 05:57 AM

"EU countries do not endure "rule from Brussels." EU countries govern themselves." Chirrups Shaw.

Tell that to the Irish, the Greeks, the Cypriots, the Spanish, the Portuguese.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 06:10 AM

The EU has not, in all it's years of existence, publicly displayed a road map of where and what it wants to be. There are just vague hints thrown out now and again - a pan european defence force, or a federal states of europe. Many are unhappy that the game plan is being hidden from the populace. They are also unhappy that un-elected bureaucrats
seem to have hijacked powers to themselves contained within a structure that allows no questions, accountability, or democracy.
Little wonder that regions with a strong identity and uniqueness wish to ensure their continuation. The present structures of the EU are hellbent on ironing out discrete political entities. Sadly ironing out the far more important regional economic disparities seems a task too far for them. They just threw Greece and Cyprus under the bus, but they cannot overlook the high rates of youth unemployment in southern europe for ever.

The British Miners Strike under The great Maggie has been mentioned ad nauseum in recent threads. Just imagine had those miners been facing a jackbooted, paramilitary, pan european gendarmerie. It would not have been just blood in the streets but corpses from a massacre. No Eu condemnation of the behaviour of Spain, quite the reverse. This is quite a contrast to the opinions of the International Observers watching the electoral process.
Their utter condemnation of the events reads more like the description of events in some backwater third world dorp, than proceedings in an advanced western country.
We have seen the future and it is not orange-it is red. I foresee many other independence movements brought to fruition by the tacit pat on the back given to Spain by the unaccountable EU monolith. I wish them all every success.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 09:47 AM

The summer I lived there (1988), the Catalan referred to themselves as Catalan, and corrected you if you called them Spanish. They referred to the rest of Spain as Spain, as if where they were wasn't Spain. And they practically *spat* upon the Spanish language. That fact was crucial to my doctoral research so I looked into it... Franco has a lot to answer for.
So they have always *been* culturally separate, like the Basque in both France and Spain.
That said, I'm agin national boundaries in general, so I am agin increasing the number of them.
Also, I don't know whether states can secede from that union legally or not. Spain is a recent pastiche of a lot of smaller cultures, like Andalusia and all.
But even if they can't, riot police throwing old ladies down stairs (I conflate, I know) is not the answer to an illegal vote. Voting is peaceful behavior and should not be answered with violence. Barricades? Disposing of ballot boxes? There is a lot they could have done without violence to the individuals.
And *having* committed that high-enous act, now, even the Catalan who weren't for separation are more against Spain now than they were, which is not helpful for unity either.
And if you get the high-enous reference, bully for you.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Donuel
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 09:51 AM

Separation was a dream of Pablo Cassals, which is good enough for me.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Bonzo3legs
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:01 PM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" - So a people's right of self-determination does not feature high on your list of human rights then Tradsinger?

Human rights has nothing to do with it. It is little more than a socialist led mob.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:17 PM

"I blame Brexit for all this mess" Feel free to blame whom you like. In this case you would be wrong. A potted history courtesy of Wiki. below:
"The political movement began in 1922 when Francesc Maciŗ founded Estat Catalŗ (Catalan State). In 1931, Estat Catalŗ and other parties formed Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia; ERC), which won a dramatic victory in the municipal elections of that year. Maciŗ proclaimed a Catalan Republic, but after negotiations with the leaders of the new Spanish Republic, he instead accepted autonomy within the Spanish state. In the Spanish Civil War, General Francisco Franco abolished Catalan autonomy in 1938. Following Franco's death in 1975, Catalan political parties concentrated on autonomy rather than independence.The modern independence movement began when the 2006 Statute of Autonomy, which had been agreed with the Spanish government and passed by a referendum in Catalonia, was challenged in the Spanish High Court of Justice, which ruled that some of the articles were unconstitutional, or were to be interpreted restrictively. Popular protest against the decision quickly turned into demands for independence.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mr Red
Date: 05 Oct 17 - 04:56 PM

the current news I get is that Catalonia does not have tax raising powers - unlike the Basque region that had an armed struggle for many years. Hmmmm...........

Catalonia contributes more per capita than the rest of Spain. I think that is seen as unfair distribution.

The northern part of Spain has more water, the southern part has ideas to use use that water to irrigate the arid parts. I think we are back into unfair distribution. Not to mention localised climate changes (it is what the south want, but at what price to the north?).

Apparently there has been a measure of intransigence from Madrid on the complaints from Barcelona which has driven the relatively moderate political parties to hemorrhage power to the more militant factions.

Does this demonstrate more of the problem?
I once worked with a Catalan lass with a PhD in biotechnology (from UK Uni, first degree in Barcelona)- she was looking for work and we showed her an ad for a translator, expert in biotech and Spanish. She spoke good English, French and a bit of German but as she says "I don't speak Spanish" (ie Castillian). Catalan yes, no Spanish. I wonder - was that Barcelona degree mostly in English, French or Catalan?

As I have said many times - referenda beget referenda. It is the peace dividend. Blame Fakebook. I do.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 12:02 PM

What a difference a day(or two) makes. Bit of a volte-face off the Spanish Government! A very misleading headline after reading it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4955204/Catalan-police-chief-arrives-court-accused-sedition.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 12:42 PM

Sigh. Nobody got the high-enous reference.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mr Red
Date: 06 Oct 17 - 05:00 PM

not even the laughing high-enous?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: vectis
Date: 07 Oct 17 - 03:27 AM

When I spent time in Catalunia in the late 1960s they did not consider that they were part of Spain. They saw themselves as separate and held that they were going to independent as soon as Franco popped his clogs.

They identified as Catalan, not Spanish. They resented the Spaniards bussed in to work the hotels springing up in the region. They considered that Spain was taking unfair advantage of their potential earnings from the tourist trade which was just taking off.

The bombings of the separatists started soon after I stopped going there regularly.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Gutcher
Date: 07 Oct 17 - 02:53 PM

Bonzio
From what appears in the newspapers socialism has nothing to do with the
situation, indeed the socialists are very much against self determination
for the Catalonian people as they fear this would thwart their ambitions
to become the ruling party in Spain.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 08 Oct 17 - 04:35 AM

An interesting perspective. Bliar Blair has also been proposed as a mediator-is this because he made such a stunning success of being a middle east peace envoy?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-future-of-the-eu-at-stake-in-catalonia/5611953


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Charmion
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 10:52 AM

It's a real pity that the Spanish government did not take a page from the book of Pierre Elliot Trudeau and his successors, who successfully defanged the Front de libťration du Quťbec in 1970, and then allowed that energy to flow into conventional politics at both the provincial and federal levels. Separatism is still a thing in Quebec, but far less of a threat than it was even in 1995, when the latest (dare I hope last?) referendum was held. To a large extent, that development is due to the Canadian federal government's restraint in dealing with Quebec, making many concessions on cultural and identity issues while holding the line hard on proposals that would have allowed Quebec to withdraw from structural elements of Confederation.

I have read that the Spanish constitution forbids separatist action at the regional level, and that the Prime Minister took the action he did because the law demanded it. I believe that, with some effort and a hell of a lot more good will, the Spanish federal government could have found a way to conform to the constitution without bringing in the riot police to round up referendum voters.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 02:16 PM

Well the Cat president has declared independence, but cleverly batted the ball back onto the Spanish side by proposing "dialogue".
Of course he knows very well the Spanish govt cannot enter into dialogue without undermining their case for unity.

Probably the tanks will roll shortly and what the EU actually is will be more evident than ever.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 03:54 PM

No he hasnít.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 10 Oct 17 - 06:38 PM

Catalonia signs Ďdeclaration of independence,í temporarily suspends it for dialogue with Madrid.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Mrrzy
Date: 11 Oct 17 - 01:57 AM

Next question, will the EU accept them and do they want to belong to the EU anyway? That is, if it's declared no longer an internal Spanish matter.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 04:26 AM

EU has said they will not be given membership.
Likewise Scotland.
It would require negotiations which always take years.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 06:21 AM

Both sides have boxed themselves in. The only solution now, I hate to say, is a referendum. Unlike our disastrous one, the bar must be set high. The referendum would be skewed, just like ours was, because if you donít get independence this time you can keep campaigning. Thatís democracy. But, if you leave, getting back in again is next to impossible, and your terms would be much poorer even if you did manage it. Iím not aware of any poll, or analysis of election voting, that shows anything like a decisive majority to leave Spain. A referendum, with terms for its conduct thrashed out and fully agreed by both sides, not just by Spain, is the only way to go, otherwise this will continue to fester for generations. Talk of EU implications is currently premature. I donít think thereís a difference in thinking between mainstream Spain and Catalonia on that. Thereís always room for negotiation on membership for states that have seceded and until we get near to a decision there isnít much point trying to predict what would happen in those uncharted waters. The EU would want Catalonia as a member and that would probably happen, current rules be damned.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Charmion
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:21 AM

I agree with Steve, much to my surprise on any but a cooking question. In fact, the referendum program as proposed by Steve is almost precisely what has been done twice in Canada and Quebec, complete with the relentless campaigning when the first referendum (1980) failed, thus producing the second referendum (1995), which failed in a squeaker. We also had a national referendum on the so-called Meech Lake proposal to amend the Constitution Act of 1982 in ways that would exempt Quebec from certain elements of Confederation. News flash: that failed too. Quebec is still in Confederation without having formally ratified the Constitution Act, and both provincial and federal separatist parties still exist and have members seated in both the Quebec National Assembly (note name) and the House of Commons, but their influence is waning steadily.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:51 AM

Well, if you put Mark Roberts on one side, and Cerys Matthews on the other . . .




Oh, sorry, "Catalonia"


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 10:57 AM

For the EU to give any ground at all to Catelonia would be seen as weakening their bargaining position on Brexit. I do not see how the issues can be separated. As I have asked before: How can creeping regional autonomy be reconciled with the galloping federalism of the EU? The entire edifice is unstable with regional disparities of economy, culture and history. It will need more than the stroke of a pen and a peripatetic Parliament to destroy allegiance to the nation state. It must also be unique in that it cannot initiate legislation, that is left to the EU commission that has such "stalwarts" as Kinnock and Mandelson.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 11:48 AM

Brexit is either going to happen, or never happen, long before an independent Catalonia becomes an issue for the EU.

Referendums are invariably divisive. Generally, they are highly undemocratic because they ask people to make a simplistic decision on complex issues that we elect and pay politicians to wrestle over. However, in this case I canít see any other way. But a badly-devised referendum would be worse than useless. Both sides must fully agree the wording of the question and the bar for independence must be set very high to correct for the skewed nature of the issue apropos of the alternative outcomes. Get that right and itís a good start. Then we have to trust advocates on both sides not to mislead the public. In our referendum the bar was set too low and both sides lied in their teeth to us. If you think that has has anything to do with democracy then Iím not with you.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 01:43 PM

I fail to see how referendums are any more divisive than elections.
Does any party stick to it's manifest when elected. Lying and distortion are the stock in trade of all politicians. Catelonia may or may not become an issue for the EU prior to brexit. The EU was happy to break up Yugoslavia so their hypocrisy concerning Catelonia is quite blatant. If the hamfisted diplomacy of the EU continues I suspect the Basques and a few others will start making waves. The Catelonian referendum could simply have been allowed and then ignored. Magnifying it into a major issue has done nothing to further the cause of european unity.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 01:50 PM

The fundamental difference is that elections results are reversible after no more than five years. Referendums are intended to yield a permanent result, especially if it means a change (which is why theyíre skewed and why the bar for change should be set high).


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 02:29 PM

" Referendums are intended to yield a permanent result, especially if it means a change"

If the EU has it's evil way the referendum will be repeated until the perceived correct response is given. Ask Ireland!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 02:30 PM

What was wrong with the referendum they tried to have?
Did the feds need to disrupt it?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:03 PM

The decision to hold a referendum is never made by the EU.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 05:08 PM

What were the terms of the referendum they tried to hold, Keith? What was the question? How was the campaign conducted? How high was the bar set for independence? How was the voting organised? I don't know. Maybe you do.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Allan Conn
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 02:54 AM

Steve the idea that the bar should be kept high because people then view them as skewed if a small majority vote for change doesn't really satisfy people either though. You just end up making the opposing side feel even more aggrieved. The best example of that was the first Scottish devolution referendum. The Yes side narrowly won the vote but not the referendum itself because the then Labour gvt put the bar higher than 50% of the turnout. It only bred resentment and left half the country feeling the democratic rights of the majority (albeit a small majority) were being ignored by Westminster.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 03:28 AM

Yes that is quite correct Allan. A referendum must be yes or no. In or out.
I the bar was set at 60% and the out vote got 61%, non democrats like Steve would be saying it still wasn't set high enough.

Where do we draw the line? Both of the last two referendums produced very large turnouts and should be seen as extremely democratic.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 03:40 AM

"The decision to hold a referendum is never made by the EU." BUT,
of the 48 referendums held by EU states the subject matter concerned the EU. In the case of Ireland the constitution demands a referendum should changes be required to accommodate EU legislation.

I fail to see why a bar should be imposed. Is it some socialist ploy to
imitate Canute? The existing bar is quite adequate, it is called a majority. It is determined by those that were both eligible and motivated to vote. Strangely enough it is no surprise that "no shows" do not count, neither do ineligible minors. How a majority is determined in the UK referendum is fact-differing opinions have zero substance.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 04:09 AM

https://www.globalresearch.ca/spain-moves-toward-military-rule-in-catalonia/5613147

An interesting perspective. Hopefully it is only somewhat hysterical.
If it is the shape of things to come, then the european dream is about to change.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:10 AM

Thatís the thing though, Allan. Referendums by their nature are almost certain to be divisive, no matter how you set the thresholds, which is one of several good reasons for not having them. The reason for setting high thresholds for a decision to make a change is that the change is likely to be highly significant and permanent. On the other hand, a decision in favour of the status quo can easily be followed by another referendum. Thatís what I mean when I say that referendums are skewed, and thatís why, if you really must have them, a simple 50+ with a low or no minimum turnout requirement is unsatisfactory. It doesnít matter how often leavers say the opposite: there was nothing like a majority of the electorate voting to leave. Iím stating an obstinate fact, not stating sour grapes. I wonít waste my energy on that but I will do my damnedest to argue, democratically, for a rethink. If you tell me to shut up, stop whingeing and. ďaccept the will of the peopleĒ (unproven in the extreme, whereas a high bar for turnout and majority would have clinched it forever) itís you being undemocratic and fascistic, not me. A referendum is not the same as a general election. You are voting for significant and potentially irreversible change. That is not what elections are about. Itís invidious to compare the two.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:29 AM

Letís see: suppose the bar was set at 75% and that was the turnout. Letís say that the required majority was 60% and the result was akenatonís 61%. Thatís still well under half the electorate voting for the change. To ensure a majority of all those entitled to vote, which I would say is the minimum requirement to make an irreversible and highly significant change, a turnout of 75% would require a majority of just under 67% voting for the change. Thatís where I would set the bars. In those circumstances, no- one on the losing side would be able to claim no majority/mandate for change. One of the divisive elements would have been removed. Thatís a much better shot at real democracy, though I still donít believe in referendums anyway. Of course, I can see why leavers wouldnít have liked it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:45 AM

You can only work on a majority of those interested enough to ACTUALLY vote.....those who wilfully do not don't deserve to be taken into account.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:54 AM

You can work on whatever criteria you decide on. And you havenít a clue how ďwilfulĒ the non-voters were. This isnít a game.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 06:26 AM

I'm afraid we will never have the means to calibrate those who wilfully don't vote from those who have been unable to vote for myriad reasons, so unfortunately they must all be considered non voters. In a referendum any other method would be nonsensical.

It is not as if there had been insufficient information available on the referendum date, or any other obstruction to voting.

The obstructions started immediately AFTER the vote. :0)


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 06:56 AM

They are considered non-voters because they didnít vote. Hope this helps.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 07:33 AM

Steve,
What was the question?
"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"
Who can vote?
Only Catalan residents of voting age, 18 and above, are entitled to participate in the referendum. An estimated 5.3 million of the region's 7.5 million population are eligible to vote. †


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 08:50 AM

Thatís a leading question, Iím afraid.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: bobad
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 09:17 AM

The question was direct, clear and unequivocal.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 10:02 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 12 Oct 17 - 11:48 AM
Brexit is either going to happen, or never happen, long before an independent Catalonia becomes an issue for the EU.
Referendums are invariably divisive.


I would prefer the idea that referendums are only held because of an existing division. So the referendums are not, in themselves, divisive. They may get people talking more about the issues, and so highlight the existing divisions, but that is not the same thing.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 11:20 AM

Ours was a referendum over a ďdivisionĒ that didnít need a referendum to fix. There was no overwhelming appetite for the UK to leave the EU. Just 38% of the electorate turning out to vote leave after being bombarded with outright xenophobia and racism for months is testament to that. But the division has been stepped up several pegs since the vote, and in some ways thatís the least of our worries now.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 11:28 AM

"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"

That is a leading question by any measure. Try this:

ďThere is an opportunity for Catalonia either to remain a part of Spain or to become an independent state in the form of a republic. Please state your preference by ticking one of the two boxes below...Ē

Make no bones about it, if I were a Catalonian living in Barcelona I would campaign and vote for Catalan independence (when not at the Nou Camp). But either you do it properly or you just store up trouble for the future. Itís hard enough to avoid that as it is.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM

"Ours was a referendum over a ďdivisionĒ that didnít need a referendum to fix. There was no overwhelming appetite for the UK to leave the EU. Just 38% of the electorate turning out to vote leave after being bombarded with outright xenophobia and racism for months is testament to that."
why do you continue to quote your opinions as though they are incontestable facts? You fool very few here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:21 PM

Because thatís what I do. Live with it. Iím not going to change the habit of a lifetime because of some ill-mannered Johnny-Come-Lately such as yourself. I suggest you debate the issues and save your bad-tempered sniping for your mates down the pub. Your own way of addressing issues here is hardly beyond reproach, is it?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:47 PM

Steve,
There was no overwhelming appetite for the UK to leave the EU.

Yes there was. UKIP actually won the EU elections and the parties all offered a referendum for fear they would win the general election too if they alone promised one.

Spain would have disrupted the Catalonian referendum however the question was put.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 01:42 PM

"Your own way of addressing issues here is hardly beyond reproach, is it?"

But I do endeavour to differentiate between fact and my opinions. Also I try to give links to support my arguments.
A pity you do not do the same. After all you no longer strut up and down the classroom on mudcat, much as you may think that you do.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 03:17 PM

And what was the turnout for those EU elections, Keith?

Grow up, Iains. Youíre no Teribus and never will be. Your endeavours, however noble you think they are, are secondary to the fact that you are generally extremely ill-mannered and delusional. Just my opinion, as ever. Or IS it a fact...


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 14 Oct 17 - 05:47 AM

Steve, the turnout was 36 per cent, up from 34.7 per cent in 2009.
The Independent, opening passage,
"Nigel Farage inflicted another body blow on the three main political parties on Sunday night as Ukip scored a stunning victory in the European Parliament elections.
The anti-EU party dramatically built on its success in the local elections in England last Thursday when the results of the Euro poll on the same day were announced. A jubilant Mr Farage hailed the outcome as ďan earthquakeĒ because ďnever before in the history of British†politics has a party seen to be an insurgent party ever topped the†polls in a†national electionĒ."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/european-elections-results-2014-sweeping-gains-for-nigel-farages-ukip-deal-further-body-blow-to-main-9434042.html


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 14 Oct 17 - 02:43 PM

At last, an admission from Steve Shaw that he posts his personal opinions as facts:

From: Iains - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM
. . .why do you continue to quote your opinions as though they are incontestable facts? You fool very few here.
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:21 PM
Because thatís what I do. Live with it.


I think that sums up (perfectly) Steve Shaw's view on what can be considered as reasonable debate.

As the Americans would have it 'Nuff said"


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 14 Oct 17 - 02:50 PM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 11:28 AM
"Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?"
That is a leading question by any measure. Try this:
What options would the two boxes give?
Your wording of the question precludes a simple yes/no answer, so it
ďThere is an opportunity for Catalonia either to remain a part of Spain or to become an independent state in the form of a republic. Please state your preference by ticking one of the two boxes below...Ē

also risks that the two options against the boxes will also be subject to bias.

You need to think these things through a little before posting you suggestions.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 14 Oct 17 - 03:45 PM

The problem is not going to go away. In fact escalation seems almost inevitable.

civil war wounds reopened


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 14 Oct 17 - 06:30 PM

So you think that a far-less-than-40% turnout, many of whom did not vote UKIP lest we forget, represents an overwhelming appetite for leaving the EU, do you, Keith? Your attempt at obfuscating waffle, a well-known tactic of yours, canít conceal the fact that there was NO OVERWHELMING APPETITE FOR LEAVING THE EU. I invite you to look up ďoverwhelmingĒ in the nearest dictionary.

Youíre wasting your time, Nigel. Targeting an individual obsessively, which is, sadly, precisely what youíre doing, is stalking. Your behaviour is a classic example. You are doing far more stalking than discussing. I see your posts but I donít read them any more. Try sticking to the issues. Youíre making a fool of yourself. Please take this as a polite early warning that your recent posting behaviour is being archived. Any more of it and Iíll complain, and I know Iíll be taken seriously. Take two steps back, Nigel.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 04:03 AM

Any more of it and Iíll complain, and I know Iíll be taken seriously.
Stupid boy!!!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 04:44 AM

Let him try me. And try to go whole day without hurling childish insults.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Allan Conn
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 07:03 AM

I agree that there is no need for name calling and actually I normally agree with much of what you say Steve - but not on this. The idea that putting such a high benchmark on any change would end any divisiveness just doesn't work for me. Treating non voters as if they were voting for the status-quo would just cause more division in that those voting for change would feel disenfranchised. Non voters in a proper referendum are either not interested, are not able to vote in that they may even be dead, or perhaps they genuinely either don't care either way or don't know. It is not a vote for the status quo though.

I don't see what alternatives there are to a referendum. The only other way is surely the parliamentary process and that is even less democratic. For instance in the Scottish parliament there is a Yes majority but it would not be democratic for them to declare independence as that Yes majority is not mirrored by the electorate or polls where Yes is still on about 46% only. So yes they have a clear mandate for the principle of having another vote from the electorate and from the votes in the parliament itself but that is only for asking the question in a referendum.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 07:22 AM

Steve,
UKIP easily won that election even though many leavers do not vote UKIP. Me for one.
So, that was indeed a clear vote against the EU in 2014 and the 2016 referendum proved the case that a majority want out.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 10:09 AM

Nigel is not a stalker, merely showing where Steve is being "wrong headed". If he was not regularly checked by logic, people might start to believe his myth spinning.

Regarding stalking in general, though I don't keep a record, I'm sure I could put together a large portfolio of Steve's "interventions".

I listened to John McDonell today being interviewed by Andrew Marr
When asked by Marr what Labour would do if they were given power today, John came up with the wheeze of telling the EU negotiators that "Britain would never walk away without a deal".
The second biggest suicide note in British history???

Does anyone seriously think that is a sustainable position? It is more or less Cameron"s position when he went grovelling before the referendum.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the EU will never give us any sort of help in the form of an advantageous trade deal.
If we leave the whole edifice crumbles, the pigs are out of their sty, the cold winter is upon them.
We must stand on our own feet, and at a later date Scotland too must assert its sovereignty ....but the social and economic system must be radically reformed to make sure the people of Scotland at all levels benefit socially. Economically we should appreciate that the days of borrowing or printing money are behind us, it will be noses the the grindstone, but at least it will be British and Scottish grindstones.

Immigration should be cut dramatically, work training programmes instigated, a life on benefits outlawed, compulsory work experience for all school leavers, a proper grading system and degree choice for further education and university.....no more degrees that are of no value to the recipients or the country.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 10:23 AM

An interesting analysis of a referendum. The only comment I would make is that legislation should have been passed to make the result binding instead of advisory, as far as brexit was concerned.Referendum


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 11:01 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 04:44 AM

Let him try me. And try to go whole day without hurling childish insults.


This could get interesting. I don't deal in "childish insults" although I know that Steve Shaw does.

As to his threat of 'keeping an archive' the whole of the Mudcat remains as an archive, which he is welcome to trawl for supportive evidence.
I merely point out his errors when they appear on a thread in which I am already taking an interest.
'Stalking' would involve seeking out comments by that person, in order to attack them. I'm sure there must be many threads which Steve Shaw contributes to, but which I have never even bothered to open.

I believe he must be bothered by my insisting on fact based argument, rather than personal assumptions. This was just the way he appeared to argue, until he decided to clarify the matter, as I quoted yesterday:

From: Iains - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM
. . .why do you continue to quote your opinions as though they are incontestable facts? You fool very few here.
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:21 PM
Because thatís what I do. Live with it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: bobad
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 01:06 PM

Don't sweat it Nigel, we've been down this road with Shaw many times before. It comes when he is contradicted or shown to be wrong about something that he starts with the name calling, accusations of stalking and idle threats. He's become somewhat of a running joke among some of us here.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 01:29 PM

The obstinate fact is that the turnout was way too low for you to conclude that there was an overwhelming appetite for leaving the EU. Even if every person in that EU election had voted UKIP, it still would not have proved an overwhelming appetite. Too many people did not take part. Allan, I don't claim every non-voter for "my side." But if any of those non-voters had felt an ardent and vital need for us to leave the EU, they would have voted. But for some reason they didn't. That suggests something less than an overwhelming appetite. Certainly, 38% of those entitled to vote does not demonstrate an overwhelming appetite.

Generally I disagree with referendums because, in a democracy, we elect politicians to know stuff better than we do and make informed decisions better than we can. Trying to dress up the brexit vote as a simple are we in/are we out vote, is just disingenuous. The repercussions either way are manifold and complex. I want people who know those potential repercussions making the crucial decisions, not a largely ignorant electorate whose only qualification is that they're over 18. Conversely, lest I'm accused of being patronising or whatever, I wouldn't want Philip Hammond plastering my bedroom ceiling or Jeremy Corbyn fitting my kitchen. In the case of Catalonia I can't see any other way out of this now bar a referendum. If I lived there I'd want independence. But cutting corners by proposing a leading question or conducting a campaign full of lies will make things worse.

The point about setting bars high is fairly straightforward. Say Catalonia voted to leave Spain, then left. Over the next few years there would be severe repercussions regarding the EU and trade with other nations, some of whom may have been unsympathetic. Spain would create difficulties and it would soon become clear that the move was irreversible. But say Catalonia voted to stay. Over the next few years there would be rumblings about another vote. In terms of democracy, and the relative cheapness of organising one, there would be nothing wrong with peaceful campaigning for a second referendum, especially if things were getting tougher and if the first vote had been close. Having a change of mind would be relatively easy to act on. But once you're out, the chances are that changing your mind would be futile. The consequences of voting to leave are not the same as voting for staying. Therefore it should be quite hard to get enough votes to leave. Leaving is a far more serious proposition than staying. I'd say two-thirds of three-quarters minimum.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 01:35 PM

A two-thirds majority of a minimum three-quarters turnout is what I meant.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 01:44 PM

Steve, why do you keep on about "an overwhelming appetite for leaving the EU?"

The UKIP victory in the EU elections was proof that a significant proportion of the people wanted it, justifying a referendum. All parties agreed that.
The referendum proved that it was a majority view.

Generally I disagree with referendums

Strange that you never mentioned that in all the discussions we had in the run up to the referendum.
Only after you lost it.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 01:49 PM

The consequences of a second vote would have to be a "best of three" vote then farce.
The consequences of staying in the EU are manifold the organisation is disintegrating and even if it survives on paper the strains of unregulated immigration and the political movements towards nationalism will make the object of "Ever Closer Union" and "Free Movement of Labour " will be unattainable.

Better out now while the waters are relatively calm.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 02:23 PM

Stupid post, Keith.

Another referendum would not be a second referendum in that the question would be very different. Actually, the last referendum was the second referendum, the first having been held in 1975. If there is another one the question would be asked in light of what's gone on since the 2016 one. A different question entirely. However, I don't think there'll be one anyway. There isn't much doubt as to which way it would go if it did happen.

In the last couple of days we've had this groundswell over no-deal. Be in no doubt as to what the brexiteers intend by this. They know that every day bad news is piling on bad news. Over the next eighteen months this is going to radically change the country's opinion on the desirability of brexit. The minute we walk away the minute the bad news is stemmed. We'll be able to paint the EU as a totally rigid and unreasonable organisation. It's a ploy to keep brexit on the rails.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 03:23 PM

"Too many people did not take part"

Well bless my soul! Shaw has created a new voting block. In my book apathy deserves everything that comes its way. A vibrant democracy requires that all those enfranchised act, when given the opportunity.

"The consequences of voting to leave are not the same as voting for staying. Therefore it should be quite hard to get enough votes to leave. Leaving is a far more serious proposition than staying. I'd say two-thirds of three-quarters minimum."

Going to bed at night is not the same as getting up in the morning.
WOW. Hows about that then. What a stunning deduction. Just how it contributes to the discussion escapes me. "Making it hard to get enough votes to leave" is blatant interference in the democratic process. Is this a cunning wheeze from comrade corbyn?(whose closest advisors have been subject to ongoing investigation by the security services)
We of the ruling party are quite happy with a simple majority vote.
How they voted in Timbuktu, or that they were away on a package holiday, or simply could not be bothered to vote is of zero interest. Squealing "not fair" after the event does not change the outcome. Those that had the most votes won, those that had the least votes lost. Simples, but leftards have a problem grasping the simplest mathematical concepts.
The only way to change the voting requirements is for parliament to pass the necessary legislation. Shaw's opinions in this matter, as in many others, counts for nought.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 03:28 PM

"The minute we walk away the minute the bad news is stemmed. We'll be able to paint the EU as a totally rigid and unreasonable organisation."

We don't need to paint them, its been obvious for months they are attempting to have the democratic will of the people reversed.
They are and have always been a "totally ridged and unreasonable organisation".....undemocratic and corrupt could also be added to their CV


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 03:30 PM

You are being stupid and insulting and all bar about two people here realise it. Live with it. You don't deserve a response.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 15 Oct 17 - 03:31 PM

That was targeted at Iains.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 03:15 AM

Steve,
Stupid post, Keith.

....but you are unable to actually challenge a word of it.


You are being stupid and insulting

....but you are unable to actually challenge a word of it.

Just saying "stupid" is not an argument, but it is all you can manage.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 03:20 AM

No, it isnít all I can manage. Itís just that I really canít be arsed to play your extremely silly games.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 04:03 AM

Anyway to get back on the topic of this thread and away from the resident buffoon who has a problem separating fact from fantasy.

An appended interesting analysis:


https://capx.co/catalonia-demonstrates-the-folly-of-a-united-states-of-europe/


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 05:36 AM

No, it isnít all I can manage. Itís just that I really canít be arsed to play your extremely silly games.

Of course it is Steve!
You could easily demolish our logic, but you choose not to.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 07:00 AM

From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 05:29 AM
Letís see: suppose the bar was set at 75% and that was the turnout. Letís say that the required majority was 60% and the result was akenatonís 61%. Thatís still well under half the electorate voting for the change. To ensure a majority of all those entitled to vote, which I would say is the minimum requirement to make an irreversible and highly significant change, a turnout of 75% would require a majority of just under 67% voting for the change. Thatís where I would set the bars. In those circumstances, no- one on the losing side would be able to claim no majority/mandate for change. One of the divisive elements would have been removed. Thatís a much better shot at real democracy, though I still donít believe in referendums anyway. Of course, I can see why leavers wouldnít have liked it.


It's interesting, this idea of retrospectively changing the rules, and retaining the status quo if a certain threshold isn't reached.

Of course, if the 2016 referendum were revised in this strange fashion, we would need to also look at the 1975 referendum which bound us to the EU. That was a 67.23% 'Yes' vote, on the basis of a 64.2% turnout.
So only 43.2% of the eligible electorate voted to bind us to the EU.

That's it, either we stick with the results of the recent referendum and we're out of the EU,
Or, we review (and overturn) both referendums and are out of the EU.


"Simples"


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 07:16 AM

I didn't say anything about retrospectively changing the rules. Don't put words in my mouth, please. Your agenda here should be to stick to the point. In fact, had different rules been in in place at the time of the last referendum, voting behaviour in several regards might have been modified. There's no point analysing the results according to rules that were not in place at the time. The main point about the last referendum is that 38% of the electorate voted to leave. Hardly an overwhelming appetite, it hardly needs to be said. But we'll have to live with it, won't we, and see what happens now. The EU are folding their arms tightly and laughing their heads off at us. Doesn't augur well, does it?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 07:45 AM

" it hardly needs to be said. But we'll have to live with it, won't we, and see what happens now. The EU are folding their arms tightly and laughing their heads off at us. Doesn't augur well, does it?

But that is not what is happening, people like you and a majority of self serving MPs are making negotiations more difficult and the EU negotiators more stubborn.

If you really believe that we HAVE to leave, get behind the government who are representing a majority of the British electorate and show a bit of British unity.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 12:40 PM

38% is not a majority of the electorate. 62% is a majority of the electorate who did not jump on board the leave bandwagon. Belief don't come into it. Belief is not predicated on fact. Reach a measured conclusion from reasonably well-verified facts. Don't go around believing. It's a bad idea, believe me.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 04:36 PM

"If you really believe that we HAVE to leave, get behind the government who are representing a majority of the British electorate and show a bit of British unity"

I think it should have been obvious that I was referring to a majority of the electorate who could be arsed voting.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 05:07 PM

I see shaw is very good at quoting statistics. It is a shame he lacks the required skillset to generate any meaningful interpretation of them.
This has been pointed out on numerous occasions when he re-flogs this tired old hoss, but still he repeats his boring mantra in the mistaken belief that some totally misguided soul might believe him.
   To spell it out again in simple words for a simple soul. Of those that voted in the referendum the majority voted for out. That is all that we need to know.

" Belief is not predicated on fact. Reach a measured conclusion from reasonably well-verified facts. Don't go around believing. It's a bad idea, believe me."
Tis a crying shame the poor boy cannot act on his own words! Or is this the usual leftard tendency of"do as I say, not as I do!"


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 06:42 PM

You are an idiot and all bar about two of us know it full well. Why don?t you try to focus on the issues? One fine day you?ll look over all your inane, insulting posts and wish to Christ that there was a delete button. Unfortunately for you, your insulting, puerile drivel will be there forever for all to see. Even if you studiously refrain from reading your own dismal posting history, you may be assured that there are plenty of us here who will be only too pleased to remind you. And everything here can be googled. Your stupidity is up here forever. If I were you, before you post anything else I?d have a long, hard think about the image of yourself that you?re propagating here. Friendly advice only.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 16 Oct 17 - 06:44 PM

Damn that new Apple keyboard...


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 17 Oct 17 - 03:43 AM

You are an idiot and all bar about two of us know it full well.

Instead of puerile name calling, please identify errors in what has been posted.
Can you?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 17 - 04:23 AM

Yes I can. Another thing I can do is avoid getting sucked into your stupid games. It is highly hypocritical of you, of all people, to defend the posts of a serially rude sniper. Let?s talk about issues around Catalonia.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 17 Oct 17 - 09:08 AM

Two Catelonian Independence leaders jailed for sedition. This EU democracy is working rather well! It will hardly be oil on troubled waters. Austria taking a hike to the right, and Brexit marching blithely on. Greece and Cyprus not impressed. The course of European Unity seems to have found a few bumps in the road.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-independence-leaders-jailed-spain-judge-sedition-jordi-sanchez-jordi-cu


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 17 Oct 17 - 09:54 AM

It is not playing "stupid games" to ask you to say exactly what it is that you claim is idiocy.
It is normal discussion.
Instead of calling people names, say what you disagree with and why.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 17 Oct 17 - 05:35 PM

Just go away, Keith. Your idiocy is crystal clear to all here bar two or three other fools. No games, Keith. I've picked up your ball and taken it home. You lose. Not interested. Go on, try me again to see if I am.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: akenaton
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 03:02 AM

Answer the fucking Question!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 03:23 AM

Ake: There's no point getting shirty with him. As I quoted earlier, he has been very clear on the basis he uses for arguments:

From: Iains - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:05 PM
. . .why do you continue to quote your opinions as though they are incontestable facts? You fool very few here.
From: Steve Shaw - PM
Date: 13 Oct 17 - 12:21 PM
Because that?s what I do. Live with it.


I love all these extra question marks he's throwing in, maybe he things he's The Riddler!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 04:59 AM

Your idiocy is crystal clear to all here bar two or three other fools.

None of us are fools, and you are unable to identify any "idiocy" in any post.

As ever you resort to abuse because you are utterly incapable of making a case or any kind of reply.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 05:50 AM

Shut up. You are pointless.

The question marks are being inserted ever since I updated my iPad to the latest IOS version. They replace every apostrophe and quote mark I try to use and trying to edit them out is useless. I really don?t know why I should have to explain these things, Nigel.

Oh yes I do, as soon as I remember who I?m talking to...


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 06:13 AM

The question marks are being inserted ever since I updated my iPad to the latest IOS version. They replace every apostrophe and quote mark I try to use and trying to edit them out is useless. I really don?t know why I should have to explain these things, Nigel.

Have you tried hitting 'preview' under the reply box, and then editing as necessary within that box?

For some systems it may be necessary to ensure you're using a valid character for the apostrophe (a straight apostrophe rather than an 'inverted comma').
Any reasonably educated person should be able to find what the fault is, and correct it.

To miss-quote Wilde:
To make this error once is unfortunate. to continue doing so seems like carelessness!


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 10:28 AM

Nigel Parsons. Well played Sir.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Greg F.
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 10:31 AM

To miss-quote Wilde:
To make this error once is unfortunate. to continue doing so seems like carelessness!


To quote myself: to make an issue of this inconsequential matter is the work of a fool.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 10:36 AM

"to make an issue of this inconsequential matter is the work of a fool."This takes care of most of your pots then, does it not?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 11:44 AM

How does that pan out, Iains?


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 18 Oct 17 - 11:54 AM

"Have you tried hitting 'preview' under the reply box, and then editing as necessary within that box?"

Why yes I have, Nigel, and I mentioned it in a post in the brexit thread that you posted to several times after the mention. Tsk, Nigel. Any reasonably well-educated person shouldn't have to be told the same thing twice within the space of a few hours. Bet you didn't listen at school either, just like your charmless pals Teribus and Iains, who pride themselves on their ignorance of teaching.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Keith A of Hertford
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 08:17 AM

The feds are going to take control of Catalonia starting Saturday, removing its autonomy.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Nigel Parsons
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 09:02 AM

The feds are going to take control of Catalonia starting Saturday, removing its autonomy.

Sounds like Spain is following the EU general view. Any state or part state can have autonomy, as long as they don't insist on having autonomy.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 10:39 AM

Autonomy is not the same as statehood. Autonomous regions within states are absolutely fine with the EU, so I fail to see your point. If Catalonia becomes a state it will no longer be in the EU. It will have to reapply, and, for several reasons, will find it next to impossible to join. First, a unanimous vote by all the member countries is needed for a new member to join. I can't see Spain voting yes somehow. Second, there are other countries with unsettled regions such as France with the Basques. Neither the EU nor Spain would not want an eased path for Catalonia to give others ideas. Third, the whole concept of the EU is predicated on closer harmonisation, countries splitting apart being completely at odds with that. The odds are that an independent Catalonia would be out in the cold for a very long time. That prospect alone would be sufficient, I reckon, to lose an independence referendum. Spain should cool it and allow Catalonia a legal referendum. I don't believe in 'em, as I've often said, but the two sides are locked into an impossible, conflicted situation for the foreseeable future without one and there's no other way. I don't think Catalonia is going anywhere, whatever happens.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 10:41 AM

Neither the EU nor France is what I meant.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 10:42 AM

And an unwarranted double negative in that sentence to boot. My eyes are dim...


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Iains
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 01:30 PM

Autonomy=a self-governing country or region.
freedom from external control or influence; independence.

synonyms:        self-government, independence, self-rule, home rule, sovereignty, self-determination, freedom, autarchy;

I do like a contradictory dictionary explanation.

I believe Catalonia's interpretation differs markedly from that of Spain and the EU.

This contretemps is still building a head of steam. Never mind it all aids brexit.


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Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
From: Steve Shaw
Date: 19 Oct 17 - 02:17 PM

Well it's simpler to look up what autonomy means in Spain rather than look for contradictory definitions in dictionaries. In fact, it means different things for different autonomous communities, each of which has its own constitution. Spain is, in effect, more of a federation than anything. Whichever community you're talking about, the degree of autonomy is considerable. The Basque Country and Catalonia characterise themselves as nationalities and are, in most regards, the most "autonomous" of the regions. We can all read wiki. And I don't see what it has to do with Brexit right now, frankly.


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