Mudcat Café message #4007533 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #4007533
Posted By: Steve Shaw
06-Sep-19 - 05:07 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Fine. Then we're stuck with him forever. :-(

The new legislation allows Johnson to get brexit if he can get a deal that the Commons approves. I can't see that happening but we live in strange times. But he can also get us out with no-deal if the Commons approves. I'd say that is currently impossible. But suppose he wins an October 15 election with a clear majority. In that scenario there would be a greatly increased risk of his getting Parliament to agree to no-deal. The new legislation would have been circumvented. In the campaign for that election he would make that possibility crystal clear and he would thereby mop up Brexit Party votes (they might even collude with him). That is a massive risk to this country's interests.

But if Labour refuses an October election* there are risks in that too. Apart from all the sloganising about cowardice and undermining the will of the people, etc, it would give Johnson longer to get a deal, which, if successful, would lumber the country with him for another five years. I think the risk of that is quite small but it isn't an impossibility. If he can't get a deal he would have to grovel for an extension, a total humiliation. If he sees that coming, even by now, he could resign as a tactical move. That precipitates us into a whole new ball game. It would look bad for him right now if he did that, but it would rapidly become water under the bridge. We are still in danger.

*Right in the middle of typing this I got an alert that Labour will not vote on Monday. I think that's the wisest decision. Another wise decision for the next couple of months would be for the two Labour factions, the SNP, the LibDems and the Greens to temporarily abandon their differences and present a united front in the interests of the nation. The only person who could beat Johnson in a general election is Jeremy Corbyn. That has to be the sentiment. Once Johnson is out (very likely in a hung parliament) then the squabbling can resume. We simply have to get this charlatan out.