Mudcat Café message #4002230 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #165570   Message #4002230
Posted By: DMcG
27-Jul-19 - 12:57 AM
Thread Name: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Subject: RE: BS: Brexit #3: A futile gesture?
Your problem is you have read or heard forcasts that said 'could' and, in your desire for bad news have substituted the word 'will'.

If you go back to the source material, and not the reinterpretations of others, you may be able to see that each 'could' has a possible 'could not' or a possible opposite. They were usually saying something like "It could be good and it could be bad. We don't really know."

There is an American sitcom called 'Young Sheldon' that dealt with this, thought they were talking about the existence of God. As best I remember the relevant sentences were like this:

"You ae confusing possibilities with probabilities. It is possible that when I go home there is a million dollars lying on my bed. It is also possible there isn't. In what world are they 50-50?"

In that example, of course "we don't really know" either. But using all the information and experience we have, we know which is more likely. And it is the same with the forecasts of the impact of no-deal.