Mudcat Café message #3884977 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #162903   Message #3884977
Posted By: Teribus
27-Oct-17 - 05:08 AM
Thread Name: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
Subject: RE: BS: Catalonia: pros and cons of separation
The Catalan electorate number some 5.3 million.

In the informal referendum that sparked this crisis 1.98 million out of the 2.2 million votes cast were for independence - considering the circumstances and the situation that result should not come as any great surprise.

The Spanish Authorities confiscated and destroyed something like 300,000 ballot papers which if they replicated the ratio shown in the ballot pares counted - this would lift the YES vote to 2.1 million for YES, or just under 40% of the electorate who could be described as hardened supporters of Catalonian independence.

Those who are against independence will not have been affected at all by what has happened. But those who fall into the categories, "Don't Knows" and the "Undecided" may well have been influenced by what they saw and the impressions do not favour the Spanish Government. If you believe in human rights and basic freedom then the YES side in Catalonia may well now get the votes they require for independence.

Average voter turn-out in Spanish elections is 73.91%, which if translated to Catalonia means that 3.92 million people will vote, so NOW should those 2.1 million people vote the same way with a 73.91% turn-out that will mean the YES side will win with 53.6% for independence. If undecided voters were swayed then the percentage for independence goes up - THAT is what the Spanish Government has achieved by acting as it has.