Mudcat Café message #3874314 The Mudcat Café TM
Thread #154173   Message #3874314
Posted By: Vashta Nerada
30-Aug-17 - 10:03 AM
Thread Name: BS: Climate Change Again - New Report
Subject: RE: BS: Climate Change Again - New Report
As to the links above, the NOAA story was nine years old, and climate science has really come into its own since then. The ARS Technica story seemed to ask odd questions and let the topic fizzle, stopping at questioning just one professor from Colorado.

But what about later this year? Does exceptionally warm water in winter augur a harsh hurricane season? The short answer is not really, says Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University who specializes in seasonal hurricane activity. "They really don't correlate well with Atlantic hurricane activity," he said of winter sea surface temperatures. "I think the primary issue is that Gulf sea surface temperatures are always plenty hot to support major hurricane activity during the season."

Rather, Klotzbach told Ars, other factors will be more dominant in determining whether hurricanes ultimately form and intensify in the Gulf this summer. Among those variables, he said, are vertical wind shear and moisture levels in the mid-atmosphere.

Klotzbach was wrong, and the apparently incurious author offers no examination of what those factors of "vertical wind shear and moisture levels" are, just uses this piece to dismiss the theory that the current conditions could cause real problems because this guy says so.

From the Atlantic article:
Climate scientists, who specialize in thinking about the Earth system as a whole, are often reticent to link any one weather event to global climate change. But they say that aspects of the case of Hurricane Harvey—and the recent history of tropical cyclones worldwide—suggest global warming is making a bad situation worse. . . .
All of this said, a storm like Harvey could have happened even if there was no climate change. Planning experts have long fretted over the possibility of a major hurricane striking Houston. Harvey is also a powerful hurricane forming in one of the most hurricane-friendly regions of the world at the peak of hurricane season. Storms similar to it would form in any climate.

But Trenberth says that the extra heat could make the storm more costly and more powerful, overpowering and eventually breaking local drainage systems.

"The human contribution can be up to 30 percent or so of the total rainfall coming out of the storm," he said. "It may have been a strong storm, and it may have caused a lot of problems anyway—but [human-caused climate change] amplifies the damage considerably."

A mild statement a little further down notes "A draft version of a major U.S. government review of climate science due out later this year says there is "medium confidence" that human activities "have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s."" - but this draft is issued by the Trump administration, burying federal science, dismissing experts in order to craft the Orange businessman's version of things.