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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
GUEST,colwyn dane Afghanistan (48) RE: Afghanistan 16 Sep 01

If it is the Afghan Taliban that is to reap the whirlwind for the terror attacks on the US then by looking at the geopolitical map of West Asia
it would appear that the set-up there is not all bleakness for US led coalition forces.

In Afghanistan the Taliban, led by Mullah Mohammed Omar(who is related to Osama bin Laden by marriage),
has about 45,000 men supported by Pakistani military advisers and it is also friendly with Saudi Arabia.
Along side them are about 3000 followers of Osama bin Laden, mainly Arab volunteers.

Against them in different parts of Afghanistan are: -

50,000 mujahideen irregulars of the Iranian supported Islamic Unity Party.

Jamiat-e-Islami led by General Bismallah can field 15,000 front line men. This is the force, which was heavily backed by the West during the USSR incursion.
The fly in the oinment here is that the former leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud,
who was the glue that held the Northern Alliance together is no longer around - he was the victim of a suicide bombing on Sunday last.

The National Islamic Alliance led by General Adbul Dostan has about 10,000 men.

The Taliban was a Pakistani/Saudi supported movement for use in Afghanistan and elsewhere, the idea being, in the event of a successful Indian offensive,
the Pakistani forces had an extra option of retreating into friendly Afghanistan and using that space to stabilise and counterattack or engage Indian forces in irregular warfare.

The Taliban would also be used to help the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front in the fight against India in Kashmir - apparently there are now Israeli military advisers in New Delhi helping the Indians in that campaign.

The Taliban is assisting the Chechnya and Daghestan independence movements against Russia.

The Taliban is active in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan on Afghanistan's Northern borders.

At the time of writing India has apparently offered the use of facilities to the USA and Pakistan has agreed to the full list of US demands.
Maybe it will be a US-India plus Afghani irregular's coalition with passive support from Russia,Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
I, IMHO, would expect Pakistan to close their border with Afghanistan and withdraw their military advisers.
It would make sense to get the Afghani guerrilla forces to do most of the ground fighting with aerial and logistic support from the US et al.
The trick would be to get them all pulling together in the same direction.

Unfortunately folks as my balls are not made of crystal events will most likely unfold a helluva lot differently.


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