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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
DMcG BS: Brexit & other UK political topics (2837* d) RE: BS: Brexit & other UK political topics 05 Jul 21


Meanwhile...

I still have to read through the entire document on the.modelling for step 4, but here is a paragraph to entertain:

f all but baseline NPIs are released on 21 June 2021 (Table 4), and assuming central immune escape and 165% increased transmissibility for B.1.617.2 (and central R after NPI lifting), our results suggest a third wave with an additional 59,180 (95% CrI: 33,140, 101,218) deaths could occur by 1 June 2022 (Table 5), with a peak in hospital bed occupancy about twice as high as that from early 2021 (Figure 7). Results are very sensitive to the assumed levels of transmissibility and immune escape for B.1.617.2. In the most optimistic scenario considered (low immune escape and 150% increased transmissibility, and central R after NPI lifting), an additional 26,854 (95% CrI: 11,639, 54,990) deaths could occur by 1 June 2022, with a wave of hospitalisations similar in magnitude to the last wave. In the most pessimistic scenario considered (high immune escape and 170% increased transmissibility), additional deaths could reach 136,377 (95% CrI: 94,307, 189,456). Should transmissibility after Step 4 be higher, there could be up to 203,824 (95% CrI: 179,600, 241,116) additional deaths by 1 June 2022

So maybe 26,854 deaths, in the middle path. But maybe 203,824 if it is more transmissible.

Ending restrictions is so.obvious, isn't?


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