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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
Neil D Brexit #2 (2815* d) RE: Brexit #2 13 Dec 18


There has been little coverage of the confidence vote here in the U S with the sentencing of Trump's lawyer to 3 yrs sucking up all the news time, but I did learn that May survived. I've been reading this thread and other sources, and I think I'm beginning to understand where things stand at present. The conflict between hard and soft Brexiteers is dividing the conservatives, while Labour/Liberal are hoping for the situation to deteriorate to the point where they get a redo on the original Brexit vote. I'm sure this is a broad brush understanding, lacking much in the way of nuance, but that's where I'm at.
   In the original Brexit vote in 2016, Scotland voted 63% to remain and Northern Ireland 56%. England (51%) and Wales (52%) voted leave. Exiting the EU was very unpopular in S and NI, presumably because of the predicted negative economic impact on those countries, but the much larger population of England made it's vote the only one that mattered. This had to seem like a real kick in the teeth to the Scots coming less than 2 years after they themselves were begged not to leave the UK, and capitulated. In the wake of the Brexit vote 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk that Scotland would hold a new referendum. Some, JP Morgan analysts for example, predicted that Scotland would be long gone from UK before Brexit could be achieved, while others said the Scottish economy was too weak at the time to consider leaving (the UK). There was also some speculation that the EU wasn't that enthused about accepting an independent Scotland, especially member nations with their own separatist movements. Think Spain.
    So. Where does that stand now? Obviously, 2 years on, Scotland is still part of the UK, so has independence been shelved for now? Might it be taken up later, even after Brexit? And what about Northern Ireland? Could they be allowed to have their own independence referendum? NI independence would certainly solve the backstop issue. Or is leaving the UK something the majority in NI would NEVER consider for fear of being absorbed by the Republic of Ireland?




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