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User Name Thread Name Subject Posted
BK Lick BS: An amusing little problem (57* d) RE: BS: An amusing little problem 12 Feb 13

Mysha, you've put your finger exactly on the perplexing aspect of this situation -- but, alas, you have not explained away the mystery as you cheerily seem to believe you have. As I concluded my original post: What's going on here? Why should the act of revealing the value of one check make it advisable to choose the other?

Consider the small, finite case scenario I described above. Say I've randomly generated the number five and accordingly presented to you two checks, face down, labeled A and B. worth $4 and $8, respectively. You turn over Check A and reveal that its value is $4. Now you know that Check B is worth either $2 or $8 with equal probability of 1/2. So the decision to choose B instead of taking the $4 is equivalent to placing a bet with me on the choice of a coin flip where you put up $2 but I put up $8. Clearly that decision would be favorable to you.

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